Protect or prevent? A practicable framework for the dilemmas of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization.

Determining COVID-19 vaccination strategies presents many challenges in light of limited vaccination capacity and the heterogeneity of affected communities. Who should be prioritized for early vaccination when different groups manifest different levels of risks and contact rates? Answering such questions often becomes computationally intractable given that network size can exceed millions. We obtain a framework to compute the optimal vaccination strategy within seconds to minutes from among all strategies, including highly dynamic ones that adjust vaccine allocation as often as required, and even with modest computation resources.

A model of faulty and faultless disagreement for post-hoc assessments of knowledge utilization in evidence-based policymaking.

When evidence-based policymaking is so often mired in disagreement and controversy, how can we know if the process is meeting its stated goals? We develop a novel mathematical model to study disagreements about adequate knowledge utilization, like those regarding wild horse culling, shark drumlines and facemask policies during pandemics. We find that, when stakeholders disagree, it is frequently impossible to tell whether any party is at fault. We demonstrate the need for a distinctive kind of transparency in evidence-based policymaking, which we call transparency of reasoning.

Fault Detection for Vaccine Refrigeration via Convolutional Neural Networks Trained on Simulated Datasets.

In low-and middle-income countries, the cold chain that supports vaccine storage and distribution is vulnerable due to insufficient infrastructure and interoperable data. To bolster these networks, we developed a convolutional neural network-based fault detection method for vaccine refrigerators using datasets synthetically generated by thermodynamic modelling. We demonstrate that these thermodynamic models can be calibrated to real cooling systems in order to identify system-specific faults under a diverse range of operating conditions.