Testing the reliability of accident analysis methods: a comparison of AcciMap, STAMP-CAST and AcciNet.

Accident analysis methods are used to model the multifactorial cause of adverse incidents. Methods such as AcciMap, STAMP-CAST and recently AcciNet, are systemic approaches that support the identification of safety interventions across sociotechnical system levels. Despite their growing popularity, little is known about how reliable systems-based methods are when used to describe, model and classify contributory factors and relationships.

Towards a unified model of accident causation: refining and validating the systems thinking safety tenets.

The systems thinking tenets were developed based on a synthesis of contemporary accident causation theory, models and approaches and encapsulate 15 features of complex systems that interact to create both safety and adverse events. Whilst initial testing provided supportive evidence, the tenets have not yet been subject to formal validation. This article presents the findings from a three-round Delphi study undertaken to refine and validate the tenets and assess their suitability for inclusion in a unified model of accident causation.

Analysing dynamic work systems using DynEAST: a demonstration of concept.

The capability of current Ergonomics methods to capture dynamism is limited, stifling our understanding of work-as-done, distributed situational awareness and organisational drift. This paper provides a demonstration of concept of DynEAST; an extension of the EAST framework underpinned by principles from Dynamic Network Analysis, to capture elements of dynamism within work systems. The DynEAST concept is applied to a railway maintenance case study.

Festschrift in honour of Professor Neville Stanton: A lone crusader in a world of driving simulators.

The automotive future has always pointed to a world of intelligent co-pilots and robot cars, but perhaps no more so than Knight Rider. In this 1980's television series the fictional Knight Industries Two Thousand (KITT) was a supercomputer on wheels with 1000 megabytes of memory. The protagonist was Michael Knight, a young loner on a crusade to champion the cause of the innocent and the helpless.

Testing the reliability and validity of risk assessment methods in Human Factors and Ergonomics.

There is growing interest in the use of systems-based risk assessment methods in Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE). The purpose of this study was to test the intra-rater reliability and criterion-referenced concurrent validity of three systems-based risk assessment approaches: (i) the Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) method; (ii) the Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork Broken Links (EAST-BL) method; and, (iii) the Network Hazard Analysis and Risk Management System (Net-HARMS) method. Reliability and validity measures were obtained using the Signal Detection Theory (SDT) paradigm.

State of science: evolving perspectives on 'human error'.

This paper reviews the key perspectives on human error and analyses the core theories and methods developed and applied over the last 60 years. These theories and methods have sought to improve our understanding of what human error is, and how and why it occurs, to facilitate the prediction of errors and use these insights to support safer work and societal systems. Yet, while this area of Ergonomics and Human Factors (EHF) has been influential and long-standing, the benefits of the 'human error approach' to understanding accidents and optimising system performance have been questioned.

Complexity theory in accident causation: using AcciMap to identify the systems thinking tenets in 11 catastrophes.

The quest to explain and understand the cause of accidents is both ever-present and ongoing amongst the safety science community. In an attempt to advance the theory and science of accident causation, researchers have recently formalised a set of '15 systems thinking tenets' that cover the conditions and characteristics of work systems that are believed to contribute to the cause of accidents. The purpose of this study was to attempt to identify the systems thinking tenets across a range of different systems and accidents using the Accident Mapping (AcciMap) method.

Systems thinking-based risk assessment methods applied to sports performance: A comparison of STPA, EAST-BL, and Net-HARMS in the context of elite women's road cycling.

There is increasing interest in applying systems Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE) methods in sport. Risk assessment (RA) methods can be used identify risks which may impact the performance of individual athletes, teams, and overall sports systems; however, they have not yet been tested in sport. This study sets out to apply and compare three systems thinking-based RA methods in the context of elite sports performance and report on the frequency and types of the risks identified.

The Binary-Based Model (BBM) for Improved Human Factors Method Selection.

Objective: This paper presents the Binary-Based Model (BBM), a new approach to Human Factors (HF) method selection. The BBM helps practitioners select the most appropriate HF methodology in relation to the complexity within the target system.

Background: There are over 200 HF methods available to the practitioner and little guidance to help choose between them.

Interaction-centred design: an end user evaluation of road intersection concepts developed using the cognitive work analysis design toolkit (CWA-DT).

Crashes at intersections represent an important road safety problem. Interactions between different road user types, such as between vehicles and vulnerable road users, are a particular concern. It has been suggested driver-centric road design plays a role in crashes.

Radical systems thinking and the future role of computational modelling in ergonomics: an exploration of agent-based modelling.

We are teetering on the precipice of the imminent Fourth Industrial Revolution. In this new age, systems are set to become more densely intraconnected and interconnected, and massive sociotechnical systems exhibiting unprecedented levels of complexity will increasingly take hold. At the dawning of this new age, the Ergonomics discipline must reflect on its preparedness for tackling problems in these novel systems.

Walking the talk: Comparing pedestrian 'activity as imagined' with 'activity as done'.

The safety of vulnerable road users, including pedestrians, is an important issue worldwide. In line with the shift towards systems thinking in transport safety, the aim of this study was to compare the normal performance of pedestrians as they navigate the road system with that imagined by road system managers to gain insights into how safety management can be improved for this vulnerable road user group. The Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork framework was used to compare pedestrian activity 'as imagined' and 'as done' at signalised road intersections and railway level crossings.

A practical review of energy saving technology for ageing populations.

Fuel poverty is a critical issue for a globally ageing population. Longer heating/cooling requirements combine with declining incomes to create a problem in need of urgent attention. One solution is to deploy technology to help elderly users feel informed about their energy use, and empowered to take steps to make it more cost effective and efficient.

Co-designing the next generation of home energy management systems with lead-users.

Home energy management systems are widely promoted as essential components of future low carbon economies. It is argued in this paper that assumptions surrounding their deployment, and the methods used to design them, emerge from discredited models of people and energy. This offers an explanation for why their field trial performance is so inconsistent.

Quantum ergonomics: shifting the paradigm of the systems agenda.

A paradigm is an accepted world view. If we do not continually question our paradigm then wider trends and movements will overtake the discipline leaving it ill adapted to future challenges. This Special Issue is an opportunity to keep systems thinking at the forefront of ergonomics theory and practice.

A mixed-methods study of health worker migration from Jamaica.

Background: This study sought to better understand the drivers of migration, its consequences, and the various strategies countries have employed to mitigate its negative impacts. The study was conducted in four countries-Jamaica, India, the Philippines, and South Africa-that have historically been 'sources' of health workers migrating to other countries. The aim of this paper is to present the findings from the Jamaica portion of the study.

Using the decision ladder to understand road user decision making at actively controlled rail level crossings.

Rail level crossings (RLXs) represent a key strategic risk for railways worldwide. Despite enforcement and engineering countermeasures, user behaviour at RLXs can often confound expectations and erode safety. Research in this area is limited by a relative absence of insights into actual decision making processes and a focus on only a subset of road user types.

Fitting methods to paradigms: are ergonomics methods fit for systems thinking?

The issues being tackled within ergonomics problem spaces are shifting. Although existing paradigms appear relevant for modern day systems, it is worth questioning whether our methods are. This paper asks whether the complexities of systems thinking, a currently ubiquitous ergonomics paradigm, are outpacing the capabilities of our methodological toolkit.

A novel approach to evaluating the UK childhood immunisation schedule: estimating the effective coverage vector across the entire vaccine programme.

Background: The availability of new vaccines can prompt policy makers to consider changes to the routine childhood immunisation programme in the UK. Alterations to one aspect of the schedule may have implications for other areas of the programme (e.g.

Can Link Analysis Be Applied to Identify Behavioral Patterns in Train Recorder Data?

Objective: A proof-of-concept analysis was conducted to establish whether link analysis could be applied to data from on-train recorders to detect patterns of behavior that could act as leading indicators of potential safety issues.

Background: On-train data recorders capture data about driving behavior on thousands of routine journeys every day and offer a source of untapped data that could be used to offer insights into human behavior.

Method: Data from 17 journeys undertaken by six drivers on the same route over a 16-hr period were analyzed using link analysis, and four key metrics were examined: number of links, network density, diameter, and sociometric status.

Big data and ergonomics methods: A new paradigm for tackling strategic transport safety risks.

Big data collected from On-Train Data Recorders (OTDR) has the potential to address the most important strategic risks currently faced by rail operators and authorities worldwide. These risk issues are increasingly orientated around human performance and have proven resistant to existing approaches. This paper presents a number of proof of concept demonstrations to show that long standing ergonomics methods can be driven from big data, and succeed in providing insight into human performance in a novel way.

Driver behaviour at roadworks.

There is an incompatibility between how transport engineers think drivers behave in roadworks and how they actually behave. As a result of this incompatibility we are losing approximately a lane's worth of capacity in addition to those closed by the roadworks themselves. The problem would have little significance were it not for the fact a lane of motorway costs approx.