Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction.

Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods.

Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening.

Some of the new generation CMIP6 models are characterised by a strong temperature increase in response to increasing greenhouse gases concentration. At first glance, these models seem less consistent with the temperature warming observed over the last decades. Here, we investigate this issue through the prism of low-frequency internal variability by comparing with observations an ensemble of 32 historical simulations performed with the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, characterized by a rather large climate sensitivity.

Alleviation of an Arctic Sea Ice Bias in a Coupled Model Through Modifications in the Subgrid-Scale Orographic Parameterization.

In climate models, the subgrid-scale orography (SSO) parameterization imposes a blocked flow drag at low levels that is opposed to the local flow. In IPSL-CM6A-LR, an SSO lift force is also applied perpendicular to the local flow to account for the effect of locally blocked air in narrow valleys. Using IPSL-CM6A-LR sensitivity experiments, it is found that the tuning of both effects strongly impacts the atmospheric circulation.

Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice-Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations.

A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere-only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice-driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979-2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size.

Author Correction: Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa.

The original version of this Article omitted a reference to previous work in 'Mann, M.E., Cane, M.

Publisher Correction: Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML version of this article.

Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa.

Stratospheric aerosols from large tropical explosive volcanic eruptions backscatter shortwave radiation and reduce the global mean surface temperature. Observations suggest that they also favour an El Niño within 2 years following the eruption. Modelling studies have, however, so far reached no consensus on either the sign or physical mechanism of El Niño response to volcanism.