Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rainbelt in response to climate change.

Future changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; a narrow band of heavy precipitation in the tropics) with climate change could affect the livelihood and food security of billions of people. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on zonal-mean shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the-art (CMIP6) climate models and document a robust zonally-varying ITCZ response to the SSP3-7.

Year-to-year Variability in Arctic Minimum Sea Ice Extent and its Preconditions in Observations and the CESM Large Ensemble Simulations.

Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) achieves its minimum in September each year and this value has been observed to decline steeply over the satellite era of the past three decades. Yet large year-to-year fluctuations are also present in the September SIE and the mechanisms for this variability are still not clear. Here we address this issue by examining the preconditions in meteorological fields in the previous spring and summer from observations and a large ensemble of historical climate model simulations.