Publications by authors named "Grogan P"

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between vaping and subsequent initiation of smoking among Australian adolescents and explore the impact of design and analytical methods in previous studies.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of cross-sectional data from 5114 Australian adolescents aged 14-17 recalling information on smoking and vaping initiation from age 12 to 17. The outcome was smoking initiation, analysed with negative-binomial regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for vape status (ever-vaped vs never-vaped) as a time-varying exposure.

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Background: Patients with grade 2 glioma exhibit highly variable survival. Re-irradiation for recurrent disease has limited mature clinical data. We report treatment results of pulsed reduced-dose rate (PRDR) radiation for patients with recurrent grade 2 glioma.

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Engineering systems, characterized by their high technical complexity and societal intricacies, require a strategic design approach to navigate multifaceted challenges. Understanding the circumstances that affect strategic action in these systems is crucial for managing complex real-world challenges. These challenges go beyond localized coordination issues and encompass intricate dynamics, requiring a deep understanding of the underlying structures impacting strategic behaviors, the interactions between subsystems, and the conflicting needs and expectations of diverse actors.

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Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to rapid climatic changes occurring in the Arctic. Nevertheless, measuring plant biomass in the Arctic is logistically challenging and resource intensive. Lack of accessible field data hinders efforts to understand the amount, composition, distribution, and changes in plant biomass in these northern ecosystems.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study projects premature mortality rates in Australia until 2044, revealing a significant decrease in age-standardized rates but an increase in total premature deaths due to an aging population.
  • It found a 44.4% decrease in rates from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, with predictions of a 12.7% further decline by 2044, yet total deaths are expected to rise from 272,815 to 334,894.
  • Cancer is forecasted to remain the leading cause of premature deaths, emphasizing the need for targeted public health strategies in Australia.
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Background: Vaping by young people in Australia is a rapidly emerging public health issue. Evidence shows that parental behaviours and attitudes can play a key role in influencing adolescent behaviours. Considering the health harms of vaping and evidence that it can be a gateway to tobacco smoking for never-smokers, it is important to understand whether parents' smoking and vaping behaviours influence their teenage children's smoking and vaping behaviours.

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Guidelines for prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing in Australia recommend that men at average risk of prostate cancer who have been informed of the benefits and harms, and who decide to undergo regular testing, should be offered testing every 2 years from 50 to 69 years. This study aimed to estimate the benefits and harms of regular testing in this context. We constructed Policy1-Prostate, a discrete event microsimulation platform of the natural history of prostate cancer and prostate cancer survival, and PSA testing patterns and subsequent management in Australia.

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Background: Pain is a common, debilitating, and feared symptom, including among cancer survivors. However, large-scale population-based evidence on pain and its impact in cancer survivors is limited. We quantified the prevalence of pain in community-dwelling people with and without cancer, and its relation to physical functioning, psychological distress, and quality of life (QoL).

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Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified.

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Objective: To compare 50-year forecasts of Australian tobacco smoking rates in relation to trends in smoking initiation and cessation and in relation to a national target of ≤5% adult daily prevalence by 2030.

Methods: A compartmental model of Australian population daily smoking, calibrated to the observed smoking status of 229 523 participants aged 20-99 years in 26 surveys (1962-2016) by age, sex and birth year (1910-1996), estimated smoking prevalence to 2066 using Australian Bureau of Statistics 50-year population predictions. Prevalence forecasts were compared across scenarios in which smoking initiation and cessation trends from 2017 were continued, kept constant or reversed.

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  • Radiation-induced gliomas (RIGs) are rare tumors that can develop after childhood radiation therapy to the central nervous system, but there has been little research on effective treatments for these patients.
  • In this report, two adults diagnosed with glioblastoma after previous radiation for childhood cancers showed an unusual complete response to initial treatment, a rare outcome in standard glioblastoma cases.
  • Genetic analysis of these tumors revealed traits more typical of high-grade pediatric gliomas, indicating that radiation-based therapies may be very effective even in tissues previously exposed to radiation, challenging previous limitations in treatment approaches.
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  • - In early 2020, the Australian Government implemented COVID-19 measures that disrupted cancer screening programs for breast, bowel, and cervical cancers, prompting an evaluation of these impacts on cancer outcomes.
  • - The study modeled outcomes over 3, 6, 9, and 12-month disruptions, predicting a decrease in breast (9.3%) and colorectal cancer diagnoses (up to 12.1%), while cervical cancer diagnoses could increase (up to 3.6%), highlighting the potential for more advanced disease stages.
  • - Findings emphasize the importance of maintaining screening participation to minimize the long-term burden of cancer, providing crucial insights to inform decision-making and enhance future screening programs.
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Australia's National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) has the potential to prevent almost 84 000 bowel cancer deaths if 60% program participation rates could be reached and maintained over the next two decades. Immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) is used as an initial screening tool. Participants who test positive are referred for colonoscopy for diagnostic assessment.

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Objective: Colorectal cancer has geographic inequities in Australia, with higher mortality rates and lower participation in the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) in remote and rural areas. The at-home kit is temperature-sensitive, necessitating a 'hot zone policy' (HZP); kits are not sent when an area's average monthly temperature is above 30°C. Australians in HZP areas are susceptible to potential screening disruptions but may benefit from well-timed interventions to improve participation.

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Objective: Over the 15 years since the 45 and Up Study (the Study) was established, researchers have harnessed its capacity for enabling rigorous, comprehensive investigation of cancer causes, care, and outcomes. For the first time in Australia, the entire cancer-control continuum could be investigated by linking questionnaire data with cancer registry notifications, hospital records, outpatient medical services and prescription medications at scale. Here, we use lung cancer as a case study to demonstrate the Study's potential to improve cancer control.

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Unlabelled: Objectives and importance of study: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is Australia's fourth most commonly diagnosed cancer. CRC screening is an effective intervention to reduce this burden. The National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) provides 2-yearly immunochemical faecal occult blood tests (iFOBTs) to Australians aged 50-74 years; a diagnostic colonoscopy is conducted after a positive iFOBT.

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Community stability is a fundamental factor sustaining ecosystem functioning and is affected by species richness and species evenness. The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other biomes, and cryptogam plant species (specifically lichens and bryophytes in this study) are major contributors to tundra biodiversity and productivity. However, to our knowledge, the impacts of warming on cryptogam community stability and the underlying mechanisms have not been investigated.

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Objectives: We assessed access to vaping products and types of products used and the factors associated with vaping and smoking among young people in the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a sample of 721 young people aged 14 to 17 years from NSW recruited through online panels. Poisson regression with robust variance was used to estimate relative risks of ever-vaping and ever-smoking.

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Background: Overweight and obesity is a growing public health issue as it contributes to the future burden of obesity-related diseases, including cancer, especially in high-income countries. In Australia, 4.3% of all cancers diagnosed in 2013 were attributable to overweight and obesity.

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Rhizobia are soil-dwelling bacteria that can form N-fixing symbioses with legume plant species (Fabaceae). These bacteria are globally distributed; however, few studies have examined the genomics of rhizobia that live in cold environments. Here, we isolated and characterized three rhizobial strains from legume nodules collected at a pair of distant low Arctic tundra and boreal forest sites in northern Canada.

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Background: While many high-income countries including Australia have successfully implemented a range of tobacco control policies, smoking remains the leading preventable cause of cancer death in Australia. We have projected Australian mortality rates for cancer types, which have been shown to have an established relationship with cigarette smoking and estimated numbers of cancer deaths attributable to smoking to 2044.

Methods: Cancer types were grouped according to the proportion of cases currently caused by smoking: 8%-30% and >30%.

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Article Synopsis
  • Cancer Projections
  • : The study aims to project cancer incidence and mortality rates in Australia from 2020 to 2044, estimating new cases and deaths for all cancers combined and 21 specific types, considering factors like smoking and screening rates.
  • Methodology
  • : A statistical modeling approach was employed, using historical cancer data and tailored models to predict future trends, while also assessing the impact of COVID-19 treatment delays on colorectal cancer mortality.
  • Key Findings
  • : Projections suggest that the incidence rate of all cancers combined for males will decrease by 2044, while females' incidence rate will remain stable; however, mortality trends were not fully detailed in the provided text.
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  • The study analyzed trends in prostate cancer incidence, mortality rates, and 5-year relative survival in Australia, focusing on PSA screening and radical prostatectomy use.
  • Localized prostate cancer incidence rates showed a significant rise in 1994 and 2008, followed by a decline post-2008; meanwhile, survival rates improved from 58.4% to 91.3%.
  • The overall mortality rates for prostate cancer have decreased since the 1990s, suggesting that less frequent PSA screening has not negatively impacted patient outcomes.
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