Development of a Risk Characterization Tool for Harmful Cyanobacteria Blooms on the Ohio River.

A data-driven approach to characterizing the risk of cyanobacteria-based harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) was undertaken for the Ohio River. Twenty-five years of river discharge data were used to develop Bayesian regression models that are currently applicable to 20 sites spread-out along the entire 1579 km of the river's length. Two site-level prediction models were developed based on the antecedent flow conditions of the two blooms that occurred on the river in 2015 and 2019: one predicts if the current year will have a bloom (the occurrence model), and another predicts bloom persistence (the persistence model).