Impact of screening for HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers: a microsimulation-based modeling study.

Background: We estimated the impact of screening on morbidity and mortality of HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer among US men aged 45-79 years.

Methods: We developed an individual-level, state-transition natural history microsimulation model to estimate the impact of screening using oral HPV16 detection, HPV16-E6 antibody detection, and transcervical-ultrasound of neck/oropharynx. We compared clinical detection to counterfactual screen detection for cancer stage, single- vs multiple-modality treatment, and survival.