The Hierarchy-of-Hypotheses Approach: A Synthesis Method for Enhancing Theory Development in Ecology and Evolution.

In the current era of Big Data, existing synthesis tools such as formal meta-analyses are critical means to handle the deluge of information. However, there is a need for complementary tools that help to (a) organize evidence, (b) organize theory, and (c) closely connect evidence to theory. We present the hierarchy-of-hypotheses (HoH) approach to address these issues.

Conservation palaeobiology and the shape of things to come.

Conservation decision-making is a forward-looking process that involves choices among alternative images of how the future will unfold. Scenarios, easily understood as stories about plausible futures, are emerging as a powerful approach used by the conservation community to define a range of socio-ecological futures when standard, predictive modelling approaches to decision-making are inappropriate, providing a framework for making robust decisions under uncertainties. Conservation palaeobiologists can help the conservation community imagine the future.

Indirect effects of climate change altered the cannibalistic behaviour of shell-drilling gastropods in Antarctica during the Eocene.

The fossil record from Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, provides a record of biotic response to the onset of global climatic cooling during the Eocene. Using drilling traces-small, round holes preserved on prey shells-we examined the effect of a cooling pulse 41 Ma on the cannibalistic behaviour of predatory naticid gastropods. We predicted that cannibalistic attacks would decline in response to the cooling climate, reflecting reduced activity levels, energy requirements and constraints on the chemically aided drilling process of the naticids.

Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems.

Conservation of species and ecosystems is increasingly difficult because anthropogenic impacts are pervasive and accelerating. Under this rapid global change, maximizing conservation success requires a paradigm shift from maintaining ecosystems in idealized past states toward facilitating their adaptive and functional capacities, even as species ebb and flow individually. Developing effective strategies under this new paradigm will require deeper understanding of the long-term dynamics that govern ecosystem persistence and reconciliation of conflicts among approaches to conserving historical versus novel ecosystems.

Geohistorical records indicate no impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on oyster body size.

Documentation of the near- and long-term effects of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill, one of the largest environmental disasters in US history, is still ongoing. We used a novel before-after-control-impact analysis to test the hypothesis that average body size of intertidal populations of the eastern oyster () inhabiting impacted areas in Louisiana decreased due to increased stress/mortality related to the oil spill. Time-averaged death assemblages of oysters were used to establish a pre-spill baseline of body-size structure for four impacted and four control locations along a 350 km stretch of Louisiana's coastline.

Fossil clam shells reveal unintended carbon cycling consequences of Colorado River management.

Water management that alters riverine ecosystem processes has strongly influenced deltas and the people who depend on them, but a full accounting of the trade-offs is still emerging. Using palaeoecological data, we document a surprising biogeochemical consequence of water management in the Colorado River basin. Complete allocation and consumptive use of the river's flow has altered the downstream estuarine ecosystem, including the abundance and composition of the mollusc community, an important component in estuarine carbon cycling.

Abundance is not enough: the need for multiple lines of evidence in testing for ecological stability in the fossil record.

The fossil record is the only source of information on the long-term dynamics of species assemblages. Here we assess the degree of ecological stability of the epifaunal pterioid bivalve assemblage (EPBA), which is part of the Middle Devonian Hamilton fauna of New York--the type example of the pattern of coordinated stasis, in which long intervals of faunal persistence are terminated by turnover events induced by environmental change. Previous studies have used changes in abundance structure within specific biofacies as evidence for a lack of ecological stability of the Hamilton fauna.

History matters: ecometrics and integrative climate change biology.

Climate change research is increasingly focusing on the dynamics among species, ecosystems and climates. Better data about the historical behaviours of these dynamics are urgently needed. Such data are already available from ecology, archaeology, palaeontology and geology, but their integration into climate change research is hampered by differences in their temporal and geographical scales.

Conservation paleobiology: putting the dead to work.

Geohistorical data and analyses are playing an increasingly important role in conservation biology practice and policy. In this review, we discuss examples of how the near-time and deep-time fossil record can be used to understand the ecological and evolutionary responses of species to changes in their environment. We show that beyond providing crucial baseline data, the conservation paleobiology perspective helps us to identify which species will be most vulnerable and what kinds of responses will be most common.

The trans-Atlantic history of diversity and body size in ecological guilds.

Geographically separate biotas often show differences in species composition, diversity, and adaptations. Such differences, which often reflect historical differences in regimes of productivity and selection, have received little attention from ecologists. Here we concentrate on diversity and maximum body size in 18 guilds of shallow-water marine shell-bearing mollusks and barnacles from the European and North American sides of the temperate North Atlantic.

Specialized shell-breaking crab claws in Cretaceous seas.

Here we report on a large brachyuran crab species from the Late Cretaceous of Mexico that has claws indicative of highly specialized shell-breaking behaviour. This crab possessed dimorphic claws (the right larger than the left), armed with several broad teeth, including a curved tooth structure found at the base of the movable finger of the right claw. The curved tooth is similar to the one observed on claws of many living durophagous crabs that use it as a weapon to peel, crush or chip the edges of hard-shelled prey, particularly molluscs.

Crab scars reveal survival advantage of left-handed snails.

Biological asymmetries are important elements of the structure and function of many living organisms. Using the Plio-Pleistocene fossil record of crab predation on morphologically similar pairs of right- and left-handed snail species, we show here for the first time, contrary to traditional wisdom, that rare left-handed coiling promotes survival from attacks by right-handed crabs. This frequency-dependent result influences the balance of selection processes that maintain left-handedness at the species level and parallels some social interactions in human cultures, such as sports that involve dual contests between opponents of opposite handedness.

Comment on "Statistical independence of escalatory ecological trends in Phanerozoic marine invertebrates".

Madin et al. (Reports, 12 May 2006, p. 897) reported that escalation has not been an important cause of biological change throughout the history of life.

Reduced competition and altered feeding behavior among marine snails after a mass extinction.

Extinction may alter competitive interactions among surviving species, affecting their subsequent recovery and evolution, but these processes remain poorly understood. Analysis of predation traces produced by shell-drilling muricid snails on bivalve prey reveals that species interactions were substantially different before and after a Plio-Pleistocene mass extinction in the western Atlantic. Muricids edge- and wall-drilled their prey in the Pliocene, but Pleistocene and Recent snails attacked prey only through the shell wall.

Escalation and extinction selectivity: morphology versus isotopic reconstruction of bivalve metabolism.

Studies that have tested and failed to support the hypothesis that escalated species (e.g., those with predation-resistant adaptations) are more susceptible to elimination during mass extinctions have concentrated on the distribution and degree of morphological defenses in molluscan species.