On adaptation, maximization, and reinforcement learning among cognitive strategies.

Analysis of binary choice behavior in iterated tasks with immediate feedback reveals robust deviations from maximization that can be described as indications of 3 effects: (a) a payoff variability effect, in which high payoff variability seems to move choice behavior toward random choice; (b) underweighting of rare events, in which alternatives that yield the best payoffs most of the time are attractive even when they are associated with a lower expected return; and (c) loss aversion, in which alternatives that minimize the probability of losses can be more attractive than those that maximize expected payoffs. The results are closer to probability matching than to maximization. Best approximation is provided with a model of reinforcement learning among cognitive strategies (RELACS).

Right of way in the sky: two problems in aircraft self-separation and the auction-based solution.

There has been a growing movement to give commercial airliners more freedom in choosing their routes and responsibility for detecting and avoiding conflicts. These "free flight" concepts must contain new rules for assigning right of way in potential conflict situations. To evaluate the effect of prospective rules, the current paper derives the expected response of agents who exhibit different levels of sophistication.

Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choice.

When people have access to information sources such as newspaper weather forecasts, drug-package inserts, and mutual-fund brochures, all of which provide convenient descriptions of risky prospects, they can make decisions from description. When people must decide whether to back up their computer's hard drive, cross a busy street, or go out on a date, however, they typically do not have any summary description of the possible outcomes or their likelihoods. For such decisions, people can call only on their own encounters with such prospects, making decisions from experience.