Quantifying energy transition vulnerability helps more just and inclusive decarbonization.

The COP28 agreement signals "beginning of the end" of the fossil fuel era, calling on countries to contribute to global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner. While a quantitative assessment of country's vulnerability in energy transition is a prerequisite for national and international policy makers to ensure a just and inclusive transition, it is notably absent in the existing research. Here, we develop a conceptual framework based on the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) method to assess differences in energy transition vulnerability across countries, with a specific focus on the challenges associated with transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity.

In contrast to most integrated assessment models, with limited transparency on damage functions and recursive temporal dynamics, we use a unique large-dimensional computational global climate and trade model, GTAP-DynW, to directly project the possible intertemporal impacts of water and heat stress on global food supply and food security to 2050. The GTAP-DynW model uses GTAP production and trade data for 141 countries and regions, with varying water and heat stress baselines, and results are aggregated into 30 countries/regions and 30 commodity sectors. Blue water stress projections are drawn from WRI source material and a GTAP-Water database to incorporate dynamic changes in water resources and their availability in agricultural production and international trade, thus providing a more general measure for severe food insecurity from water and heat stress damages with global warming.

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes.

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030.

What vaccination rate(s) minimize total societal costs after 'opening up' to COVID-19? Age-structured SIRM results for the Delta variant in Australia (New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia).

Using three age-structured, stochastic SIRM models, calibrated to Australian data post July 2021 with community transmission of the Delta variant, we projected possible public health outcomes (daily cases, hospitalisations, ICU beds, ventilators and fatalities) and economy costs for three states: New South Wales (NSW), Victoria (VIC) and Western Australia (WA). NSW and VIC have had on-going community transmission from July 2021 and were in 'lockdown' to suppress transmission. WA did not have on-going community transmission nor was it in lockdown at the model start date (October 11th 2021) but did maintain strict state border controls.

Proactive Metabolite Testing in Patients on Thiopurine May Yield Long-Term Clinical Benefits in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Background: The thiopurine medications are well established in the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). There is significant variation in levels of toxic and therapeutic metabolites. Current data from small or short-term studies support therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) in assessing azathioprine (AZA) and 6-mercaptopurine (6MP).

Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia's second wave.

Background: We investigated the public health and economy outcomes of different levels of social distancing to control a 'second wave' outbreak in Australia and identify implications for public health management of COVID-19.

Methods: Individual-based and compartment models were used to simulate the effects of different social distancing and detection strategies on Australian COVID-19 infections and the economy from March to July 2020. These models were used to evaluate the effects of different social distancing levels and the early relaxation of suppression measures, in terms of public health and economy outcomes.

Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia.

We compare the health and economic costs of early and delayed mandated suppression and the unmitigated spread of 'first-wave' COVID-19 infections in Australia in 2020. Using a fit-for-purpose SIQRM-compartment model for susceptible, infected, quarantined, recovered and mortalities on active cases, that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (A-VSL), we find that the economic costs of unmitigated suppression are multiples more than for early mandated suppression. We also find that using an equivalent VSLY welfare loss from fatalities to estimated GDP losses, drawn from survey data and our own estimates of the impact of suppression measures on the economy, means that for early suppression not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australia would have to incur more than 12,500-30,000 deaths, depending on the fatality rate with unmitigated spread, to the economy costs of early mandated suppression.

Robust estimates of the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: a backcasting approach.

Differences in COVID-19 testing and tracing across countries, as well as changes in testing within each country over time, make it difficult to estimate the true (population) infection rate based on the confirmed number of cases obtained through RNA viral testing. We applied a backcasting approach to estimate a distribution for the true (population) cumulative number of infections (infected and recovered) for 15 developed countries. Our sample comprised countries with similar levels of medical care and with populations that have similar age distributions.

Crohn's Colitis Care (CCCare): bespoke cloud-based clinical management software for inflammatory bowel disease.

Background: Adherence to evidence-based management is variable in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), which leads to worse patient outcomes and higher healthcare utilization. Solutions include electronic systems to enhance care, but these have often been limited by lack of clinician design input, poor usability, and low perceived value. A cloud-based IBD-specific clinical management software - 'Crohn's Colitis Care' (CCCare) was developed by Australia and New Zealand Inflammatory Bowel Disease Consortium clinicians and software developers to improve this.

Infliximab-related weight gain in inflammatory bowel disease: associations and financial impacts.

Association between tumour necrosis alpha inhibitors and weight gain has been reported. We examined weight change in our cohort of inflammatory bowel disease patients treated with infliximab (IFX) for over 12 months, its associations and financial implications. Two-thirds of patients gained weight during the course of therapy.

Nonsynonymous Polymorphism in Guanine Monophosphate Synthetase Is a Risk Factor for Unfavorable Thiopurine Metabolite Ratios in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Background: Up to 20% of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) who are refractory to thiopurine therapy preferentially produce 6-methylmercaptopurine (6-MMP) at the expense of 6-thioguanine nucleotides (6-TGN), resulting in a high 6-MMP:6-TGN ratio (>20). The objective of this study was to evaluate whether genetic variability in guanine monophosphate synthetase (GMPS) contributes to preferential 6-MMP metabolizer phenotype.

Methods: Exome sequencing was performed in a cohort of IBD patients with 6-MMP:6-TGN ratios of >100 to identify nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs).

Household adoption of energy and water-efficient appliances: An analysis of attitudes, labelling and complementary green behaviours in selected OECD countries.

Using a household-based data set of more than 12,000 households from 11 OECD countries, we analyse the factors underlying the decision by households to adopt energy-efficient and water-efficient equipment. We evaluate the roles of both attitudes and labelling schemes on the adoption of energy and water-efficient equipment, and also the interaction and complementarity between energy and water conservation behaviours. Our findings show: one, 'green' social norms and favourable attitudes towards the environment are associated with an increased likelihood of households' adoption of energy and water-efficient appliances; two, households' purchase decisions are positively affected by their awareness, understanding, and trust of labelling schemes; and three, there is evidence of complementarity between energy conservation and water conservation behaviours.

Infliximab vs. adalimumab in Crohn's disease: results from 327 patients in an Australian and New Zealand observational cohort study.

Background: Maintenance anti-tumour necrosis factor-α (anti-TNFα) treatment for Crohn's disease is the standard of care for patients with an inadequate response to corticosteroids and immunomodulators.

Aim: To compare the efficacy and safety of infliximab and adalimumab in clinical practice and assess the value of concomitant immunomodulator therapy.

Methods: We performed an observational cohort study in consecutive patients with Crohn's disease qualifying for anti-TNFα treatment in Australia and New Zealand between 2007 and 2011.

Environmental offsets, resilience and cost-effective conservation.

Conservation management agencies are faced with acute trade-offs when dealing with disturbance from human activities. We show how agencies can respond to permanent ecosystem disruption by managing for Pimm resilience within a conservation budget using a model calibrated to a metapopulation of a coral reef fish species at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. The application is of general interest because it provides a method to manage species susceptible to negative environmental disturbances by optimizing between the number and quality of migration connections in a spatially distributed metapopulation.

Low muscle mass and sarcopenia: common and predictive of osteopenia in inflammatory bowel disease.

Background: Body composition is poorly studied in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Sarcopenia describes a loss of muscle mass and strength.

Aim: To assess the prevalence of low lean mass (LM), sarcopenia and associated morbidity in an adult IBD cohort.

Water planning and hydro-climatic change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.

More than a third of humanity lives in regions with less than 1 million liters of fresh water per person per year. Population growth will increase water demand while climate change in arid and semi-arid areas may reduce water availability. The Murray-Darling Basin in Australia is a region where water reform and planning have been used to reduce consumptive extraction to better sustain river ecosystems under climate variability.

Crohn's disease and smoking: is it ever too late to quit?

Background: Smoking increases CD risk. The aim was to determine if smoking cessation at, prior to, or following, CD diagnosis affects medication use, disease phenotypic progression and/or surgery.

Methods: Data on CD patients with disease for ≥5 yrs were collected retrospectively including the Montreal classification, smoking history, CD-related abdominal surgeries, family history, medication use and disease behaviour at diagnosis and the time when the disease behaviour changed.

Clinical audit: recent practice in caring for patients with acute severe colitis compared with published guidelines--is there a problem?

Background: Acute severe colitis (ASC) is a serious condition with possible outcomes of emergency colectomy and mortality. Validated guidelines exist to help avoid these.

Aims: To examine local adherence to guidelines and identify (a) opportunities to improve care and (b) possible barriers to adherence.

A dedicated inflammatory bowel disease service quantitatively and qualitatively improves outcomes in less than 18 months: a prospective cohort study in a large metropolitan centre.

Introduction: Maintaining high efficacy and quality of care in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) management is a priority. The authors examined whether the introduction of a formal IBD Service (IBDS) positively influenced outcomes for their patients.

Methods: In 2007-2008, all IBD patients attending the Royal Adelaide Hospital were surveyed regarding clinical/demographic data, IBD knowledge, quality of life, mental health and satisfaction.

A chronic care model significantly decreases costs and healthcare utilisation in patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

Introduction: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic condition, yet the model of care is often reactive. We sought to examine whether a formal IBD service (IBDS) reduced inpatient healthcare utilisation or lowered costs for inpatient care.

Material And Methods: With protocols, routine nurse phone follow-up a help-line, more proactive care was delivered, with many symptoms and concerns dealt with prior to routine presentation.

Inter-observer agreement for Crohn's disease sub-phenotypes using the Montreal Classification: How good are we? A multi-centre Australasian study.

Background: Crohn's disease (CD) exhibits significant clinical heterogeneity. Classification systems attempt to describe this; however, their utility and reliability depends on inter-observer agreement (IOA). We therefore sought to evaluate IOA using the Montreal Classification (MC).

Complementarity of no-take marine reserves and individual transferable catch quotas for managing the line fishery of the great barrier reef.

Changes in the management of the fin fish fishery of the Great Barrier Reef motivated us to investigate the combined effects on economic returns and fish biomass of no-take areas and regulated total allowable catch allocated in the form of individual transferable quotas (such quotas apportion the total allowable catch as fishing rights and permits the buying and selling of these rights among fishers). We built a spatially explicit biological and economic model of the fishery to analyze the trade-offs between maintaining given levels of fish biomass and the net financial returns from fishing under different management regimes. Results of the scenarios we modeled suggested that a decrease in total allowable catch at high levels of harvest either increased net returns or lowered them only slightly, but increased biomass by up to 10% for a wide range of reserve sizes and an increase in the reserve area from none to 16% did not greatly change net returns at any catch level.