Long-term health and human capital effects of in utero exposure to an industrial disaster: a spatial difference-in-differences analysis of the Bhopal gas tragedy.

Objectives: Globalisation and industrialisation can increase economic opportunity for low/middle-income nations, but these processes may also increase industrial accidents and harm workers. This paper examines the long-term, cohort-based health effects of the Bhopal gas disaster (BGD), one of the most serious industrial accidents in history.

Design: This retrospective analysis uses geolocated data on health and education from India's National Family Health Survey-4 (NFHS-4) and the 1999 Indian Socio-Economic Survey by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO-1999) to examine the health effects of exposure to the BGD among men and women aged 15-49 years living in Madhya Pradesh in 2015-2016 (women n=40 786; men n=7031 (NFHS-4) and n=13 369 (NSSO-1999)), as well as their children (n=1260).

ENSO impacts child undernutrition in the global tropics.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a principal component of global climate variability known to influence a host of social and economic outcomes, but its systematic effects on human health remain poorly understood. We estimate ENSO's association with child nutrition at global scale by combining variation in ENSO intensity from 1986-2018 with children's height and weight from 186 surveys conducted in 51 teleconnected countries, containing 48% of the world's under-5 population. Warmer El Niño conditions predict worse child undernutrition in most of the developing world, but better outcomes in the small number of areas where precipitation is positively affected by warmer ENSO.

Health Impacts of the Green Revolution: Evidence from 600,000 births across the Developing World.

What is the contribution of the 'Green Revolution' to improvements in child health during the 20 century? We provide global scale estimates of this relationship by constructing a novel, spatially-precise indicator of modern crop variety (MV) diffusion and leveraging child-level data from over 600,000 children across 21,604 sampling locations in 37 developing countries between 1961-2000. Results indicate that the diffusion of MVs reduced infant mortality by 2.4-5.

The impact of an insecticide treated bednet campaign on all-cause child mortality: A geospatial impact evaluation from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Objective: To test the impact of a nationwide Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets [LLINs] distribution program in the Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC] on all-cause under-five child mortality exploiting subnational variation in malaria endemicity and the timing in the scale-up of the program across provinces.

Design: Geospatial Impact Evaluation using a difference-in-differences approach.

Setting: Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic development.

This paper estimates the role of agronomic inputs in cereal yield improvements and the consequences for countries' processes of structural change. The results suggest a clear role for fertilizer, modern seeds and water in boosting yields. We then test for respective empirical links between agricultural yields and economic growth, labor share in agriculture and non-agricultural value added per worker.

A Malaria Ecology Index Predicted Spatial and Temporal Variation of Malaria Burden and Efficacy of Antimalarial Interventions Based on African Serological Data.

Reducing the global health burden of malaria is complicated by weak reporting systems for infectious diseases and a paucity of vital statistics registration. This limits our ability to predict changes in malaria health burden intensity, target antimalarial resources where needed, and identify malaria impacts in retrospective data. We refined and deployed a temporally and spatially varying Malaria Ecology Index (MEI) incorporating climatological and ecological data to estimate malaria transmission strength and validate it against cross-sectional serology data from 39,875 children from seven sub-Saharan African countries.

Malaria ecology, child mortality & fertility.

The broad determinants of fertility are thought to be reasonably well identified by demographers, though the detailed quantitative drivers of fertility levels and changes are less well understood. This paper uses a novel ecological index of malaria transmission to study the effect of child mortality on fertility. We find that temporal variation in the ecology of the disease is well-correlated to mortality, and pernicious malaria conditions lead to higher fertility rates.

Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Integrating HIV and Nutrition Service Delivery: Pilots in Malawi and Mozambique.

This paper provides the first estimates of impact and cost-effectiveness for integrated HIV and nutrition service delivery in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV and undernutrition are synergistic co-epidemics impacting millions of children throughout the region. To alleviate this co-epidemic, UNICEF supported small-scale pilot programs in Malawi and Mozambique that integrated HIV and nutrition service delivery.

Deployment of community health workers across rural sub-Saharan Africa: financial considerations and operational assumptions.

Objective: To provide cost guidance for developing a locally adaptable and nationally scalable community health worker (CHW) system within primary-health-care systems in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods: The yearly costs of training, equipping and deploying CHWs throughout rural sub-Saharan Africa were calculated using data from the literature and from the Millennium Villages Project. Model assumptions were such as to allow national governments to adapt the CHW subsystem to national needs and to deploy an average of 1 CHW per 650 rural inhabitants by 2015.

Scaling up malaria control in Africa: an economic and epidemiological assessment.

This paper estimates the number of people at risk of contracting malaria in Africa using GIS methods and the disease's epidemiologic characteristics. It then estimates yearly costs of covering the population at risk with the package of interventions (differing by level of malaria endemicity and differing for rural and urban populations) for malaria as recommended by the UN Millennium Project. These projected costs are calculated assuming a ramp-up of coverage to full coverage by 2008, and then projected out through 2015 to give a year-by-year cost of meeting the Millennium Development Goal for reducing the burden of malaria by 75%.