Spontaneous Stochasticity Amplifies Even Thermal Noise to the Largest Scales of Turbulence in a Few Eddy Turnover Times.

How predictable are turbulent flows? Here, we use theoretical estimates and shell model simulations to argue that Eulerian spontaneous stochasticity, a manifestation of the nonuniqueness of the solutions to the Euler equation that is conjectured to occur in Navier-Stokes turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, leads to universal statistics at finite times, not just at infinite time as for standard chaos. These universal statistics are predictable, even though individual flow realizations are not. Any small-scale noise vanishing slowly enough with increasing Reynolds number can trigger spontaneous stochasticity, and here we show that thermal noise alone, in the absence of any larger disturbances, would suffice.

Stochastic Model for Quasi-One-Dimensional Transitional Turbulence with Streamwise Shear Interactions.

The transition to turbulence in wall-bounded shear flows is typically subcritical, with a poorly understood interplay between spatial fluctuations, pattern formation, and stochasticity near the critical Reynolds number. Here, we present a spatially extended stochastic minimal model for the energy budget in transitional pipe flow, which successfully recapitulates the way localized patches of turbulence (puffs) decay, split, and grow, respectively, as the Reynolds number increases through the laminar-turbulent transition. Our approach takes into account the flow geometry, as we demonstrate by extending the model to quasi-one-dimensional Taylor-Couette flow, reproducing the observed directed percolation pattern of turbulent patches in space and time.

Dissipation-range fluid turbulence and thermal noise.

We revisit the issue of whether thermal fluctuations are relevant for incompressible fluid turbulence and estimate the scale at which they become important. As anticipated by Betchov in a prescient series of works more than six decades ago, this scale is about equal to the Kolmogorov length, even though that is several orders of magnitude above the mean free path. This result implies that the deterministic version of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation is inadequate to describe the dissipation range of turbulence in molecular fluids.

Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at a large public university.

In Fall 2020, universities saw extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among their populations, threatening health of the university and surrounding communities, and viability of in-person instruction. Here we report a case study at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where a multimodal "SHIELD: Target, Test, and Tell" program, with other non-pharmaceutical interventions, was employed to keep classrooms and laboratories open. The program included epidemiological modeling and surveillance, fast/frequent testing using a novel low-cost and scalable saliva-based RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 that bypasses RNA extraction, called covidSHIELD, and digital tools for communication and compliance.

Context-dependent influence of threat on honey bee social network dynamics and brain gene expression.

Adverse social experience affects social structure by modifying the behavior of individuals, but the relationship between an individual's behavioral state and its response to adversity is poorly understood. We leveraged naturally occurring division of labor in honey bees and studied the biological embedding of environmental threat using laboratory assays and automated behavioral tracking of whole colonies. Guard bees showed low intrinsic levels of sociability compared with foragers and nurse bees, but large increases in sociability following exposure to a threat.

DNA Supercoiling Drives a Transition between Collective Modes of Gene Synthesis.

Transcription of genes can be affected by both biochemical and mechanical factors. Recent experiments suggested that the mechanical stress associated with transcription-induced DNA supercoiling is responsible for the transition from cooperative to antagonistic group dynamics of RNA polymerases (RNAPs) upon promoter repression. To underpin the mechanism behind this drastic transition, we developed a continuum deterministic model for transcription under torsion.

Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus, and an endemic state.

It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, that is, constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models, we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic, in broad agreement with empirical data.

Ice needles weave patterns of stones in freezing landscapes.

Patterned ground, defined by the segregation of stones in soil according to size, is one of the most strikingly self-organized characteristics of polar and high-alpine landscapes. The presence of such patterns on Mars has been proposed as evidence for the past presence of surface liquid water. Despite their ubiquity, the dearth of quantitative field data on the patterns and their slow dynamics have hindered fundamental understanding of the pattern formation mechanisms.

Field-theoretic model for chemotaxis in run and tumble particles.

In this paper, we develop a field-theoretic description for run and tumble chemotaxis, based on a density-functional description of crystalline materials modified to capture orientational ordering. We show that this framework, with its in-built multiparticle interactions, soft-core repulsion, and elasticity, is ideal for describing continuum collective phases with particle resolution, but on diffusive timescales. We show that our model exhibits particle aggregation in an externally imposed constant attractant field, as is observed for phototactic or thermotactic agents.

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity.

Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, superspreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, whereas long-term persistent heterogeneity in susceptibility is expected to lead to a reduction in both the infection peak and the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Here, we develop a general approach to encompass both timescales, including time variations in individual social activity, and demonstrate how to incorporate them phenomenologically into a wide class of epidemiological models through reparameterization.

Roadmap on biology in time varying environments.

Biological organisms experience constantly changing environments, from sudden changes in physiology brought about by feeding, to the regular rising and setting of the Sun, to ecological changes over evolutionary timescales. Living organisms have evolved to thrive in this changing world but the general principles by which organisms shape and are shaped by time varying environments remain elusive. Our understanding is particularly poor in the intermediate regime with no separation of timescales, where the environment changes on the same timescale as the physiological or evolutionary response.

Emergency ventilator for COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the world in 2020 by spreading at unprecedented rates and causing tens of thousands of fatalities within a few months. The number of deaths dramatically increased in regions where the number of patients in need of hospital care exceeded the availability of care. Many COVID-19 patients experience Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), a condition that can be treated with mechanical ventilation.

Individual variations lead to universal and cross-species patterns of social behavior.

The duration of interaction events in a society is a fundamental measure of its collective nature and potentially reflects variability in individual behavior. Here we performed a high-throughput measurement of trophallaxis and face-to-face event durations experienced by a colony of honeybees over their entire lifetimes. The interaction time distribution is heavy-tailed, as previously reported for human face-to-face interactions.

Scale-invariant topology and bursty branching of evolutionary trees emerge from niche construction.

Phylogenetic trees describe both the evolutionary process and community diversity. Recent work has established that they exhibit scale-invariant topology, which quantifies the fact that their branching lies in between the two extreme cases of balanced binary trees and maximally unbalanced ones. In addition, the backbones of phylogenetic trees exhibit bursts of diversification on all timescales.

Three-body interactions drive the transition to polar order in a simple flocking model.

A large class of mesoscopic or macroscopic flocking theories are coarse-grained from microscopic models that feature binary interactions as the chief aligning mechanism. However, while such theories seemingly predict the existence of polar order with just binary interactions, actomyosin motility assay experiments show that binary interactions are insufficient to obtain polar order, especially at high densities. To resolve this paradox, here we introduce a solvable one-dimensional flocking model and derive its stochastic hydrodynamics.

Testing the retroelement invasion hypothesis for the emergence of the ancestral eukaryotic cell.

Phylogenetic evidence suggests that the invasion and proliferation of retroelements, selfish mobile genetic elements that copy and paste themselves within a host genome, was one of the early evolutionary events in the emergence of eukaryotes. Here we test the effects of this event by determining the pressures retroelements exert on simple genomes. We transferred two retroelements, human LINE-1 and the bacterial group II intron Ll.

Stochastic Turing patterns in a synthetic bacterial population.

The origin of biological morphology and form is one of the deepest problems in science, underlying our understanding of development and the functioning of living systems. In 1952, Alan Turing showed that chemical morphogenesis could arise from a linear instability of a spatially uniform state, giving rise to periodic pattern formation in reaction-diffusion systems but only those with a rapidly diffusing inhibitor and a slowly diffusing activator. These conditions are disappointingly hard to achieve in nature, and the role of Turing instabilities in biological pattern formation has been called into question.

Biophysical constraints determine the selection of phenotypic fluctuations during directed evolution.

Phenotypes of individuals in a population of organisms are not fixed. Phenotypic fluctuations, which describe temporal variation of the phenotype of an individual or individual-to-individual variation across a population, are present in populations from microbes to higher animals. Phenotypic fluctuations can provide a basis for adaptation and be the target of selection.

Automated monitoring of behavior reveals bursty interaction patterns and rapid spreading dynamics in honeybee social networks.

Social networks mediate the spread of information and disease. The dynamics of spreading depends, among other factors, on the distribution of times between successive contacts in the network. Heavy-tailed (bursty) time distributions are characteristic of human communication networks, including face-to-face contacts and electronic communication via mobile phone calls, email, and internet communities.

Coevolution Maintains Diversity in the Stochastic "Kill the Winner" Model.

The "kill the winner" hypothesis is an attempt to address the problem of diversity in biology. It argues that host-specific predators control the population of each prey, preventing a winner from emerging and thus maintaining the coexistence of all species in the system. We develop a stochastic model for the kill the winner paradigm and show that the stable coexistence state of the deterministic kill the winner model is destroyed by demographic stochasticity, through a cascade of extinction events.

Universal biology and the statistical mechanics of early life.

All known life on the Earth exhibits at least two non-trivial common features: the canonical genetic code and biological homochirality, both of which emerged prior to the Last Universal Common Ancestor state. This article describes recent efforts to provide a narrative of this epoch using tools from statistical mechanics. During the emergence of self-replicating life far from equilibrium in a period of chemical evolution, minimal models of autocatalysis show that homochirality would have necessarily co-evolved along with the efficiency of early-life self-replicators.

Noise-induced symmetry breaking far from equilibrium and the emergence of biological homochirality.

The origin of homochirality, the observed single-handedness of biological amino acids and sugars, has long been attributed to autocatalysis, a frequently assumed precursor for early life self-replication. However, the stability of homochiral states in deterministic autocatalytic systems relies on cross-inhibition of the two chiral states, an unlikely scenario for early life self-replicators. Here we present a theory for a stochastic individual-level model of autocatalytic prebiotic self-replicators that are maintained out of thermal equilibrium.

Giant Amplification of Noise in Fluctuation-Induced Pattern Formation.

The amplitude of fluctuation-induced patterns might be expected to be proportional to the strength of the driving noise, suggesting that such patterns would be difficult to observe in nature. Here, we show that a large class of spatially extended dynamical systems driven by intrinsic noise can exhibit giant amplification, yielding patterns whose amplitude is comparable to that of deterministic Turing instabilities. The giant amplification results from the interplay between noise and nonorthogonal eigenvectors of the linear stability matrix, yielding transients that grow with time, and which, when driven by the ever-present intrinsic noise, lead to persistent large amplitude patterns.

Stochastic Predator-Prey Dynamics of Transposons in the Human Genome.

Transposable elements, or transposons, are DNA sequences that can jump from site to site in the genome during the life cycle of a cell, usually encoding the very enzymes which perform their excision. However, some transposons are parasitic, relying on the enzymes produced by the regular transposons. In this case, we show that a stochastic model, which takes into account the small copy numbers of the active transposons in a cell, predicts noise-induced predator-prey oscillations with a characteristic time scale that is much longer than the cell replication time, indicating that the state of the predator-prey oscillator is stored in the genome and transmitted to successive generations.