Transition from positive to negative indirect CO effects on the vegetation carbon uptake.

Although elevated atmospheric CO concentration (eCO) has substantial indirect effects on vegetation carbon uptake via associated climate change, their dynamics remain unclear. Here we investigate how the impacts of eCO-driven climate change on growing-season gross primary production have changed globally during 1982-2014, using satellite observations and Earth system models, and evaluate their evolution until the year 2100. We show that the initial positive effect of eCO-induced climate change on vegetation carbon uptake has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century.

Climate-driven vegetation greening further reduces water availability in drylands.

Climate change alters surface water availability (WA; precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P - ET) and consequently impacts agricultural production and societal water needs, leading to increasing concerns on the sustainability of water use. Although the direct effects of climate change on WA have long been recognized and assessed, indirect climate effects occurring through adjustments in terrestrial vegetation are more subtle and not yet fully quantified. To address this knowledge gap, here we investigate the interplay between climate-induced changes in leaf area index (LAI) and ET and quantify its ultimate effect on WA during the period 1982-2016 at the global scale, using an ensemble of data-driven products and land surface models.

Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change.

Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience). Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience, yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators, has changed during the period 2000-2020.

EU-Trees4F, a dataset on the future distribution of European tree species.

We present "EU-Trees4F", a dataset of current and future potential distributions of 67 tree species in Europe at 10 km spatial resolution. We provide both climatically suitable future areas of occupancy and the future distribution expected under a scenario of natural dispersal for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.

Vegetation-based climate mitigation in a warmer and greener World.

The mitigation potential of vegetation-driven biophysical effects is strongly influenced by the background climate and will therefore be influenced by global warming. Based on an ensemble of remote sensing datasets, here we first estimate the temperature sensitivities to changes in leaf area over the period 2003-2014 as a function of key environmental drivers. These sensitivities are then used to predict temperature changes induced by future leaf area dynamics under four scenarios.

Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests.

Forest disturbance regimes are expected to intensify as Earth's climate changes. Quantifying forest vulnerability to disturbances and understanding the underlying mechanisms is crucial to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, observational evidence is largely missing at regional to continental scales.

HARCI-EU, a harmonized gridded dataset of critical infrastructures in Europe for large-scale risk assessments.

Critical infrastructures (CIs) are assets, systems, or parts thereof that are essential for the maintenance of socioeconomic functions, health, safety and well-being of people. The exposure of CIs to natural and man-made hazards poses a risk to the economy and society. The spatial distribution of CIs and their economic value are a prerequisite for quantifying risk and planning suitable protection and adaptation measures.

Evaluating the Interplay Between Biophysical Processes and Leaf Area Changes in Land Surface Models.

Land Surface Models (LSMs) are essential to reproduce biophysical processes modulated by vegetation and to predict the future evolution of the land-climate system. To assess the performance of an ensemble of LSMs (JSBACH, JULES, ORCHIDEE, CLM, and LPJ-GUESS) a consistent set of land surface energy fluxes and leaf area index (LAI) has been generated. Relationships of interannual variations of modeled surface fluxes and LAI changes have been analyzed at global scale across climatological gradients and compared with those obtained from satellite-based products.

Response to Comment on "Satellites reveal contrasting responses of regional climate to the widespread greening of Earth".

Li contest the idea that vegetation greening has contributed to boreal warming and argue that the sensitivity of temperature to leaf area index (LAI) is instead likely driven by the climate impact on vegetation. We provide additional evidence that the LAI-climate interplay is indeed largely driven by the vegetation impact on temperature and not vice versa, thus corroborating our original conclusions.

Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study.

Background: The observed increase in the effects on human beings of weather-related disasters has been largely attributed to the rise in population exposed, with a possible influence of global warming. Yet, future risks of weather-related hazards on human lives in view of climate and demographic changes have not been comprehensively investigated.

Methods: We assessed the risk of weather-related hazards to the European population in terms of annual numbers of deaths in 30 year intervals relative to the reference period (1981-2010) up to the year 2100 (2011-40, 2041-70, and 2071-100) by combining disaster records with high-resolution hazard and demographic projections in a prognostic modelling framework.

Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe.

Extreme climatic events are likely to become more frequent owing to global warming. This may put additional stress on critical infrastructures with typically long life spans. However, little is known about the risks of multiple climate extremes on critical infrastructures at regional to continental scales.

Satellites reveal contrasting responses of regional climate to the widespread greening of Earth.

Changes in vegetation cover associated with the observed greening may affect several biophysical processes, whose net effects on climate are unclear. We analyzed remotely sensed dynamics in leaf area index (LAI) and energy fluxes in order to explore the associated variation in local climate. We show that the increasing trend in LAI contributed to the warming of boreal zones through a reduction of surface albedo and to an evaporation-driven cooling in arid regions.