Simulated African Swine Fever (ASF) virus detection in Italy: average numbers of farms and pigs under restriction.

African swine fever is a devastating contagious viral disease of kept and wild porcine animals that will challenge the Veterinary Services involved in its eradication. Nowadays, ASF represents one of the biggest challenges for the pig sector at a global level. Following a number of simulated virus random introductions, the paper estimates the average number of farms (including their type) and animals that will be under restriction, and finally the average distance of infected farms from the nearest rendering plant.