Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada.

In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest.

Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming.

Observational constraint methods based on the relationship between the past global warming trend and projected warming across climate models were used to reduce uncertainties in projected warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Internal climate variability in the eastern tropical Pacific associated with the so-called pattern effect weakens this relationship and has reduced the observed warming trend over recent decades. Here we show that regressing out this variability before applying the observed global mean warming trend as a constraint results in higher and narrower twenty-first century warming ranges than other methods.

Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks.

Achieving net zero global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO), with declining emissions of other greenhouse gases, is widely expected to halt global warming. CO emissions will continue to drive warming until fully balanced by active anthropogenic CO removals. For practical reasons, however, many greenhouse gas accounting systems allow some "passive" CO uptake, such as enhanced vegetation growth due to CO fertilisation, to be included as removals in the definition of net anthropogenic emissions.

"Wait, Do I Need More Fiber?" Exploring UK Consumers' Dietary Fiber-Related Awareness and White Bread as a Viable Solution to Promote Subsequent Intake.

Background: Sufficient dietary fiber consumption is associated with well-established health benefits, yet such intake is currently suboptimal globally. Thus, there is interest in developing strategies to improve dietary fiber intake. One such approach is to increase the dietary fiber content of staple foods, but this needs relevant investigation.

Is high sensitivity troponin, taken regardless of a clinical indication, associated with 1 year mortality in critical care patients?

The aim of this study was to assess whether high sensitivity troponin (hs-cTnI) is associated with 1 year mortality in critical care (CC). One year mortality data were obtained from NHS Digital for a consecutive cohort of patients admitted to general CC unit (GCCU) and neuroscience CC unit (NCCU) who had hs-cTnI tests performed throughout their CC admission, regardless of whether the test was clinically indicated. Cox proportional hazards were used to estimate the risk of 1-year mortality.

Warming proportional to cumulative carbon emissions not explained by heat and carbon sharing mixing processes.

The constant ratio of global warming to cumulative CO emissions underpins the use of cumulative emissions budgets as policy tools, and the need to reach net zero CO emissions to stabilize global mean temperature. Several studies have argued that this property arises because heat and carbon are mixed into the ocean by similar physical processes, and this argument was echoed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Here we show that, contrary to this hypothesis, atmosphere-ocean fluxes of heat and carbon evolve very differently to each other in abrupt CO increase experiments in five earth system models, and that changes in the atmosphere, ocean and land carbon pools all contribute to making warming proportional to cumulative emissions.

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario.

The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, based on simulations from the latest generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here we show, using an attribution analysis approach, that a dominant influence of greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in three observational datasets in all months of the year, but is on average underestimated by CMIP6 models. By scaling models' sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test, we project an ice-free Arctic in September under all scenarios considered.

Incidence and 1-year outcome of periprocedural myocardial infarction following cardiac surgery: are the Universal Definition and Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Intervention criteria fit for purpose?

Objectives: The diagnosis and clinical implications of periprocedural myocardial infarction (PPMI) following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are contentious, especially the importance of PPMI in the interpretation of trial data.

Methods: Consecutive patients admitted to a cardiothoracic critical care unit over a 6-month period following open cardiac surgery had high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay performed on admission and every day for 48 h, regardless of whether there was a request by the supervising clinical team. Patients were categorized as PPMI using both the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction (UDMI) and Society of Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) criteria.

An Observational Constraint on Aviation-Induced Cirrus From the COVID-19-Induced Flight Disruption.

Global aviation dropped precipitously during the covid-19 pandemic, providing an unprecedented opportunity to study aviation-induced cirrus (AIC). AIC is believed to be responsible for over half of aviation-related radiative forcing, but until now, its radiative impact has only been estimated from simulations. Here, we show that satellite observations of cirrus cloud do not exhibit a detectable global response to the dramatic aviation reductions of spring 2020.

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP.

Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty.

Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations.

Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings.

Distribution of High-Sensitivity Troponin Taken Without Conventional Clinical Indications in Critical Care Patients and Its Association With Mortality.

Objectives: To describe the distribution of high-sensitivity troponin in a consecutive cohort of patients in critical care units, regardless of clinical indication, and its association with clinical outcomes.

Design: Prospective observational study.

Setting: Single-center teaching hospital.

Quantifying the influence of short-term emission reductions on climate.

The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic has resulted in a marked slowdown in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Although the resulting emission reductions will continue to evolve, this will presumably be temporary. Here, we provide estimates of the potential effect of such short-term emission reductions on global and regional temperature and precipitation by analyzing the response of an Earth System Model to a range of idealized near-term emission pathways not considered in available model intercomparison projects.

Making climate projections conditional on historical observations.

Many studies have sought to constrain climate projections based on recent observations. Until recently, these constraints had limited impact, and projected warming ranges were driven primarily by model outputs. Here, we use the newest climate model ensemble, improved observations, and a new statistical method to narrow uncertainty on estimates of past and future human-induced warming.

Attribution of the Influence of Human-Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season.

A record 1.2 million ha burned in British Columbia, Canada's extreme wildfire season of 2017. Key factors in this unprecedented event were the extreme warm and dry conditions that prevailed at the time, which are also reflected in extreme fire weather and behavior metrics.

Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions.

Canada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future.

Live diatoms as indicators of urban stormwater runoff.

Diatom bioassessment of streams/rivers does not distinguish between live (cells with intact chloroplasts) and dead (empty cells) individuals, even though most diatom samples collected from the field will be composed of a mixture of both. This study aimed to evaluate whether percentage of live diatoms (PLD), live diatom density and chlorophyll a, and diatom species compositions can be used as indicators of hydrologic disturbance in an urban stream. We deployed artificial substrates on a monthly basis and collected periphyton samples weekly over the course of one calendar year (n = 182) in three tributaries of urbanized Ruddiman Creek (Michigan, USA).

The impact of environmental parameters on microcystin production in dialysis bag experiments.

It is important to understand what environmental parameters may regulate microcystin (MC) production and congener type. To determine if environmental conditions in two hydraulically connected lakes can influence MC production and congener ratios, we incubated dialysis bags containing phytoplankton from mesotrophic/eutrophic Muskegon Lake into hypereutrophic Bear Lake (Michigan, USA) and vice versa. Strong cyanobacteria growth was observed in all dialysis bags with Bear Lake phytoplankton in July and August.

Spatial and temporal variability of river periphyton below a hypereutrophic lake and a series of dams.

Klamath River is described as an "upside-down" river due to its origins from the hypereutrophic Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) and hydrology that is heavily regulated by upstream dams. Understanding the lake and reservoir effects on benthic communities in the river can inform important aspects of its water quality dynamics. Periphyton samples were collected in May-November from 2004, 2006-2013 at nine long-term monitoring sites along 306 river km below UKL and a series of dams (n=299).

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing.

Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere.

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols.

One hundred years of Arctic surface temperature variation due to anthropogenic influence.

Observations show that Arctic-average surface temperature increased from 1900 to 1940, decreased from 1940 to 1970, and increased from 1970 to present. Here, using new observational data and improved climate models employing observed natural and anthropogenic forcings, we demonstrate that contributions from greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, along with explosive volcanic eruptions, explain most of this observed variation in Arctic surface temperature since 1900. In addition, climate model simulations without natural and anthropogenic forcings indicate very low probabilities that the observed trends in each of these periods were due to internal climate variability alone.

Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature.

We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the fingerprint) and the noise of internally generated variability.

THE POTENTIAL INDICATOR VALUE OF RARE TAXA RICHNESS IN DIATOM-BASED STREAM BIOASSESSMENT.

Despite their recognized contribution to species richness, the importance of rare taxa richness in bioassessment is unclear. This study aimed to characterize the environmental factors affecting the number of rare diatom taxa in western U.S.