Statistics of extremes in oil spill risk analysis.

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DWH) in 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico is the largest accidental marine oil spill in the history of the petroleum industry. After DWH, key questions were asked: What is the likelihood that a similar catastrophic oil spill (with a volume over 1 million barrels) will happen again? Is DWH an extreme event or will it happen frequently in the future? The extreme value theory (EVT) has been widely used in studying rare events, including damage from hurricanes, stock market crashes, insurance claims, flooding, and earthquakes. In this paper, the EVT is applied to analyze oil spills in the U.