Real-Time and Adaptive Reservoir Computing With Application to Profile Prediction in Fusion Plasma.

Nuclear fusion is a promising alternative to address the problem of sustainable energy production. The tokamak is an approach to fusion based on magnetic plasma confinement, constituting a complex physical system with many control challenges. We study the characteristics and optimization of reservoir computing (RC) for real-time and adaptive prediction of plasma profiles in the DIII-D tokamak.

Robust regression on noisy data for fusion scaling laws.

We introduce the method of geodesic least squares (GLS) regression for estimating fusion scaling laws. Based on straightforward principles, the method is easily implemented, yet it clearly outperforms established regression techniques, particularly in cases of significant uncertainty on both the response and predictor variables. We apply GLS for estimating the scaling of the L-H power threshold, resulting in estimates for ITER that are somewhat higher than predicted earlier.

A probabilistic model for the identification of confinement regimes and edge localized mode behavior, with implications to scaling laws.

Pattern recognition is becoming an important tool in fusion data analysis. However, fusion diagnostic measurements are often affected by considerable statistical uncertainties, rendering the extraction of useful patterns a significant challenge. Therefore, we assume a probabilistic model for the data and perform pattern recognition in the space of probability distributions.