Wastewater-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2: Short-term projection (forecasting), smoothing and outlier identification using Bayesian smoothing.

Background: Day-to-day variation in the measurement of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater can challenge public health interpretation. We assessed a Bayesian smoothing and forecasting method previously used for surveillance and short-term projection of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Methods: SARS-CoV-2 viral measurement from the sewershed in Ottawa, Canada, sampled at the municipal wastewater treatment plant from July 1, 2020, to February 15, 2022, was used to assess and internally validate measurement averaging and prediction.