Improved methods for estimating abundance and related demographic parameters from mark-resight data.

Over the past decade, there has been much methodological development for the estimation of abundance and related demographic parameters using mark-resight data. Often viewed as a less-invasive and less-expensive alternative to conventional mark recapture, mark-resight methods jointly model marked individual encounters and counts of unmarked individuals, and recent extensions accommodate common challenges associated with imperfect detection. When these challenges include both individual detection heterogeneity and an unknown marked sample size, we demonstrate several deficiencies associated with the most widely used mark-resight models currently implemented in the popular capture-recapture freeware Program MARK.

Band reporting rates of waterfowl: does individual heterogeneity bias estimated survival rates?

In capture-recapture studies, the estimation accuracy of demographic parameters is essential to the efficacy of management of hunted animal populations. Dead recovery models based upon the reporting of rings or bands are often used for estimating survival of waterfowl and other harvested species. However, distance from the ringing site or condition of the bird may introduce substantial individual heterogeneity in the conditional band reporting rates (r), which could cause bias in estimated survival rates (S) or suggest nonexistent individual heterogeneity in S.

Estimating parameters of hidden Markov models based on marked individuals: use of robust design data.

Development and use of multistate mark-recapture models, which provide estimates of parameters of Markov processes in the face of imperfect detection, have become common over the last 20 years. Recently, estimating parameters of hidden Markov models, where the state of an individual can be uncertain even when it is detected, has received attention. Previous work has shown that ignoring state uncertainty biases estimates of survival and state transition probabilities, thereby reducing the power to detect effects.

A less field-intensive robust design for estimating demographic parameters with mark-resight data.

The robust design has become popular among animal ecologists as a means for estimating population abundance and related demographic parameters with mark-recapture data. However, two drawbacks of traditional mark-recapture are financial cost and repeated disturbance to animals. Mark-resight methodology may in many circumstances be a less expensive and less invasive alternative to mark-recapture, but the models developed to date for these data have overwhelmingly concentrated only on the estimation of abundance.

Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA.

We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming, without confounding effects of land-use change, by repeating Grinnell's early-20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability, we show substantial ( approximately 500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed approximately 3 degrees C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs, leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations.

Estimating abundance using mark-resight when sampling is with replacement or the number of marked individuals is unknown.

Although mark-resight methods can often be a less expensive and less invasive means for estimating abundance in long-term population monitoring programs, two major limitations of the estimators are that they typically require sampling without replacement and/or the number of marked individuals available for resighting to be known exactly. These requirements can often be difficult to achieve. Here we address these limitations by introducing the Poisson log and zero-truncated Poisson log-normal mixed effects models (PNE and ZPNE, respectively).

Bayesian analysis of wildlife age-at-harvest data.

State and federal natural resource management agencies often collect age-structured harvest data. These data represent finite realizations of stochastic demographic and sampling processes and have long been used by biologists to infer population trends. However, different sources of data have been combined in ad hoc ways and these methods usually failed to incorporate sampling error.

Small mammals and forest fuel reduction: national-scale responses to fire and fire surrogates.

Forest fuel reduction treatments are increasingly used by managers to reduce the risk of high-severity wildfire and to manage changes in the ecological function of forests. However, comparative ecological effects of the various types of treatments are poorly understood. We examined short-term patterns in small-mammal responses to mechanical thinning, prescribed-fire, and mechanical thinning/prescribed-fire combination treatments at eight different study areas across the United States as a part of the National Fire and Fire Surrogate (FFS) Project.

The impact of increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change on the dynamics of asiatic wild ass.

Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus, in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC), the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study, we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve, Israel.