The indirect costs and burden of vaccine-preventable cancers premature mortality in Asia-Pacific countries.

Background: Cancer is the second leading cause of death in the Asia-Pacific region. Human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) are major cancer-causing infections. This analysis assessed the mortality impact and productivity losses due to HBV- and HPV-related cancers in ten Asia-Pacific countries.

Prophylactic bilateral internal iliac balloon occlusion to control hemorrhage in placenta accreta spectrum: a boon for obstetricians.

Background: Placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) is abnormal placental adhesion beyond superficial myometrium, which may lead to severe life-threatening hemorrhage requiring massive blood transfusions in the peripartum period. Prophylactic balloon catheterization of bilateral internal iliac arteries with or without additional embolization with Cesarean hysterectomy in patients with PAS prevent excessive intraoperative hemorrhage and may also obviate the need for hysterectomy.

Purpose: To study the efficacy of intervention radiological procedures in controlling intraoperative hemorrhage in patients with PAS.

West Nile virus transfusion-transmission risk in Australia associated with a seasonal outbreak in the United States.

Background: West Nile virus (WNV) is a potentially transfusion-transmissible virus endemic in the US. The aim of this study was to estimate the monthly WNV transfusion transmission (TT) risk in Australia associated with donors returning from the US in 2018 and consider the implications for mitigation strategies.

Study Design And Methods: We used a probabilistic risk model to estimate the monthly WNV TT risks for each outbreak state/district in the US for the 2018 transmission season and the cumulative monthly risk for all US states/districts.

Predictive models for cochlear implant outcomes: Performance, generalizability, and the impact of cohort size.

While cochlear implants have helped hundreds of thousands of individuals, it remains difficult to predict the extent to which an individual's hearing will benefit from implantation. Several publications indicate that machine learning may improve predictive accuracy of cochlear implant outcomes compared to classical statistical methods. However, existing studies are limited in terms of model validation and evaluating factors like sample size on predictive performance.

A MultiCenter Analysis of Factors Associated with Hearing Outcome for 2,735 Adults with Cochlear Implants.

While the majority of cochlear implant recipients benefit from the device, it remains difficult to estimate the degree of benefit for a specific patient prior to implantation. Using data from 2,735 cochlear-implant recipients from across three clinics, the largest retrospective study of cochlear-implant outcomes to date, we investigate the association between 21 preoperative factors and speech recognition approximately one year after implantation and explore the consistency of their effects across the three constituent datasets. We provide evidence of 17 statistically significant associations, in either univariate or multivariate analysis, including confirmation of associations for several predictive factors, which have only been examined in prior smaller studies.

Modeling the West Nile virus transfusion transmission risk in a nonoutbreak country associated with traveling donors.

Background: West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus and transfusion transmission (TT) has been demonstrated. The European Union and neighboring countries experience an annual transmission season.

Study Design And Methods: We developed a novel probabilistic model to estimate the WNV TT risk in Australia attributable to returned donors who had travelled to the European Union and neighboring countries during the 2018.

Effects of agrochemical pollution on schistosomiasis transmission: a systematic review and modelling analysis.

Background: Agrochemical pollution of surface waters is a growing global environmental challenge, especially in areas where agriculture is rapidly expanding and intensifying. Agrochemicals might affect schistosomiasis transmission through direct and indirect effects on Schistosoma parasites, their intermediate snail hosts, snail predators, and snail algal resources. We aimed to review and summarise the effects of these agrochemicals on schistosomiasis transmission dynamics.

Review of Mathematical Models of Vaccination for Preventing Congenital Cytomegalovirus Infection.

Background: Several cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidates are under development. To reduce the burden of congenital CMV infection, potential strategies under consideration include vaccination of adult women, adolescent girls, and/or young children (both sexes).

Methods: We reviewed 5 studies that used infectious disease modeling to assess the potential impact of vaccination for preventing congenital CMV infection.

Forecasting the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak.

In 2014-2015, a large Ebola outbreak afflicted Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. We performed a systematic review of 26 manuscripts, published between 2014 and April 2015, that forecasted the West African Ebola outbreak while it was occurring, and we derived implications for how results could be interpreted by policymakers. Forecasted case counts varied widely.

Factors Associated With Measles Transmission in the United States During the Postelimination Era.

Importance: Measles cases and outbreaks continue to occur in the United States after the introduction of measles from endemic settings.

Objective: To discern the factors associated with measles transmission in the United States after measles had been eliminated.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2017, in the United States among US residents and international visitors with confirmed measles.

School dismissal as a pandemic influenza response: When, where and for how long?

We used individual-based computer simulation models at community, regional and national levels to evaluate the likely impact of coordinated pre-emptive school dismissal policies during an influenza pandemic. Such policies involve three key decisions: when, over what geographical scale, and how long to keep schools closed. Our evaluation includes uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, as well as model output uncertainties arising from variability in serial intervals and presumed modifications of social contacts during school dismissal periods.

The role of super-spreading events in Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission: evidence from contact tracing.

Background: In current epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB), heterogeneity in infectiousness among TB patients is a challenge, which is not well studied. We aimed to quantify this heterogeneity and the presence of "super-spreading" events that can assist in designing optimal public health interventions.

Methods: TB epidemiologic investigation data notified between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015 from Victoria, Australia were used to quantify TB patients' heterogeneity in infectiousness and super-spreading events.

Risk prediction system for dengue transmission based on high resolution weather data.

Background: Dengue is the fastest spreading vector-borne viral disease, resulting in an estimated 390 million infections annually. Precise prediction of many attributes related to dengue is still a challenge due to the complex dynamics of the disease. Important attributes to predict include: the risk of and risk factors for an infection; infection severity; and the timing and magnitude of outbreaks.

Estimating the elimination feasibility in the 'end game' of control efforts for parasites subjected to regular mass drug administration: Methods and their application to schistosomiasis.

Progress towards controlling and eliminating parasitic worms, including schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and lymphatic filariasis, is advancing rapidly as national governments, multinational NGOs, and pharmaceutical companies launch collaborative chemotherapeutic control campaigns. Critical questions remain regarding the potential for achieving elimination of these infections, and analytical methods can help to quickly estimate progress towards-and the probability of achieving-elimination over specific timeframes. Here, we propose the effective reproduction number, Reff, as a proxy of elimination potential for sexually reproducing worms that are subject to poor mating success at very low abundance (positive density dependence, or Allee effects).

Agent-based models of malaria transmission: a systematic review.

Background: Much of the extensive research regarding transmission of malaria is underpinned by mathematical modelling. Compartmental models, which focus on interactions and transitions between population strata, have been a mainstay of such modelling for more than a century. However, modellers are increasingly adopting agent-based approaches, which model hosts, vectors and/or their interactions on an individual level.

Relationship of weight and obesity with the risk of knee and hip arthroplasty for osteoarthritis across different levels of physical performance: a prospective cohort study.

Objective: To examine the association between obesity and knee and hip arthroplasty for osteoarthritis across a range of physical performance.

Method: The body mass index and physical performance (on the 36-item Short Form Health Survey) of 9135 Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study participants were measured in 1999-2000. The incidence of knee and hip arthroplasty during 2002-2011 was determined by linking the cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry.

The impact of shared sanitation facilities on diarrheal diseases with and without an environmental reservoir: a modeling study.

Epidemiological studies have identified an increased risk of diarrheal diseases associated with using shared sanitation facilities. We hypothesized that this might be related to differences in transmission routes of pathogens. We proposed a mathematical model of two fictitious pathogens, one transmitted with an environmental reservoir and one without.

Agrochemicals increase risk of human schistosomiasis by supporting higher densities of intermediate hosts.

Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease that ranks among the most important water-based diseases of humans in developing countries. Increased prevalence and spread of human schistosomiasis to non-endemic areas has been consistently linked with water resource management related to agricultural expansion. However, the role of agrochemical pollution in human schistosome transmission remains unexplored, despite strong evidence of agrochemicals increasing snail-borne diseases of wildlife and a projected 2- to 5-fold increase in global agrochemical use by 2050.

A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of the Factors Associated With Nonadherence and Discontinuation of Statins Among People Aged ≥65 Years.

Background: Older individuals (aged ≥65 years) are commonly prescribed statins but may experience a range of barriers in adhering to therapy. The factors associated with poor statin adherence and/or discontinuation among this population have not been comprehensively reviewed.

Methods: We conducted a systematic review to identify English articles published through December 12, 2016 that reported factors associated with nonadherence and/or discontinuation of statins among older persons.

Risk factors for infectiousness of patients with tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses of studies assessing tuberculosis (TB) patient-related risk factors for transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Meta-analyses were conducted for sputum smear-positivity, lung cavitation and HIV seropositivity of index patients with both crude and adjusted odds ratios (AORs) pooled using random effect models. Thirty-seven studies were included in the review.

Adherence and Persistence Among Statin Users Aged 65 Years and Over: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Background: Older people (aged ≥ 65 years) have distinctive challenges with medication adherence. However, adherence and persistence patterns among older statin users have not been comprehensively reviewed.

Methods: As part of a broader systematic review, we searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, CENTRAL, and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database through December 2016 for English articles reporting adherence and/or persistence among older statin users.