A machine learning model to investigate factors contributing to the energy transition of utility and independent power producer sectors internationally.

There is evidence of independent power producers dominating the electricity sector's uptake of renewable energy, with utilities lagging behind. Here, we build a machine-learning-based model with multiple dependent variables to simultaneously explore environmental policy and market structure contributions to investment patterns in different technologies by utility and independent producer sectors across 33 countries over 20 years. With the analysis enabling the capture of non-linear relationships, our findings suggest substantial resistance of gas capacity to even strict carbon pricing policies, while coal appears more responsive.