Does growing atmospheric CO explain increasing carbon sink in a boreal coniferous forest?

The terrestrial net ecosystem productivity (NEP) has increased during the past three decades, but the mechanisms responsible are still unclear. We analyzed 17 years (2001-2017) of eddy-covariance measurements of NEP, evapotranspiration (ET) and light and water use efficiency from a boreal coniferous forest in Southern Finland for trends and inter-annual variability (IAV). The forest was a mean annual carbon sink (252 [ 42] gC ), and NEP increased at rate +6.

Reduced ecosystem resilience quantifies fine-scale heterogeneity in tropical forest mortality responses to drought.

Sensitivity of forest mortality to drought in carbon-dense tropical forests remains fraught with uncertainty, while extreme droughts are predicted to be more frequent and intense. Here, the potential of temporal autocorrelation of high-frequency variability in Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), an indicator of ecosystem resilience, to predict spatial and temporal variations of forest biomass mortality is evaluated against in situ census observations for 64 site-year combinations in Costa Rican tropical dry forests during the 2015 ENSO drought. Temporal autocorrelation, within the optimal moving window of 24 months, demonstrated robust predictive power for in situ mortality (leave-one-out cross-validation R  = 0.

Detecting forest response to droughts with global observations of vegetation water content.

Droughts in a warming climate have become more common and more extreme, making understanding forest responses to water stress increasingly pressing. Analysis of water stress in trees has long focused on water potential in xylem and leaves, which influences stomatal closure and water flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. At the same time, changes of vegetation water content (VWC) are linked to a range of tree responses, including fluxes of water and carbon, mortality, flammability, and more.

A Multiscale Approach to Timescale Analysis: Isolating Diel Signals from Solute Concentration Time Series.

Solute concentration time series reflect hydrological and biological drivers through various frequencies, phases, and amplitudes of change. Untangling these signals facilitates the understanding of dynamic ecosystem conditions and transient water quality issues. A case in point is the inference of biogeochemical processes from diel solute concentration variations.

Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics.

Observational knowledge of the epidemic intensity, defined as the number of deaths divided by global population and epidemic duration, and of the rate of emergence of infectious disease outbreaks is necessary to test theory and models and to inform public health risk assessment by quantifying the probability of extreme pandemics such as COVID-19. Despite its significance, assembling and analyzing a comprehensive global historical record spanning a variety of diseases remains an unexplored task. A global dataset of historical epidemics from 1600 to present is here compiled and examined using novel statistical methods to estimate the yearly probability of occurrence of extreme epidemics.

Universal Return to Isotropy of Inhomogeneous Atmospheric Boundary Layer Turbulence.

A recalcitrant problem in the physics of turbulence is the representation of the tendency of large-scale anisotropic eddies to redistribute their energy content with decreasing scales, a phenomenon referred to as return to isotropy. An unprecedented dataset of atmospheric turbulence measurements covering flat to mountainous terrain, stratification spanning convective to very stable conditions, surface roughness ranging over several orders of magnitude, and Reynolds numbers that far exceed the limits of direct numerical simulations and laboratory experiments was assembled for the first time and used to explore the scalewise return to isotropy. The multiple routes to energy equipartitioning among velocity components are shown to be universal once the initial anisotropy at large scales, linked to turbulence generation, is accounted for.

A kernel-modulated SIR model for Covid-19 contagious spread from county to continent.

The tempo-spatial patterns of Covid-19 infections are a result of nested personal, societal, and political decisions that involve complicated epidemiological dynamics across overlapping spatial scales. High infection "hotspots" interspersed within regions where infections remained sporadic were ubiquitous early in the outbreak, but the spatial signature of the infection evolved to affect most regions equally, albeit with distinct temporal patterns. The sparseness of Covid-19 infections in the United States was analyzed at scales spanning from 10 to 2,600 km (county to continental scale).

Population agglomeration is a harbinger of the spatial complexity of COVID-19.

The spatial template over which COVID-19 infections operate is a result of nested societal decisions involving complex political and epidemiological processes at a broad range of spatial scales. It is characterized by 'hotspots' of high infections interspersed within regions where infections are sporadic to absent. In this work, the sparseness of COVID-19 infections and their time variations were analyzed across the US at scales ranging from 10 km (county scale) to 2600 km (continental scale).

Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters.

Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security.

Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics.

The SIR ('susceptible-infectious-recovered') formulation is used to uncover the generic spread mechanisms observed by COVID-19 dynamics globally, especially in the early phases of infectious spread. During this early period, potential controls were not effectively put in place or enforced in many countries. Hence, the early phases of COVID-19 spread in countries where controls were weak offer a unique perspective on the ensemble-behavior of COVID-19 basic reproduction number Ro inferred from SIR formulation.

Seasonal hysteresis of surface urban heat islands.

Temporal dynamics of urban warming have been extensively studied at the diurnal scale, but the impact of background climate on the observed seasonality of surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) remains largely unexplored. On seasonal time scales, the intensity of urban-rural surface temperature differences ([Formula: see text]) exhibits distinctive hysteretic cycles whose shape and looping direction vary across climatic zones. These observations highlight possible delays underlying the dynamics of the coupled urban-biosphere system.

Maximizing leaf carbon gain in varying saline conditions: An optimization model with dynamic mesophyll conductance.

While the adverse effects of elevated salinity levels on leaf gas exchange in many crops are not in dispute, representing such effects on leaf photosynthetic rates (A) continues to draw research attention. Here, an optimization model for stomatal conductance (g ) that maximizes A while accounting for mesophyll conductance (g ) was used to interpret new leaf gas exchange measurements collected for five irrigation water salinity levels. A function between chloroplastic CO concentration (c ) and intercellular CO concentration (c ) modified by salinity stress to estimate g was proposed.

Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population.

Urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The intensity of UHIs varies with population size and mean annual precipitation, but a unifying explanation for this variation is lacking, and there are no geographically targeted guidelines for heat mitigation. Here we analyse summertime differences between urban and rural surface temperatures (ΔT) worldwide and find a nonlinear increase in ΔT with precipitation that is controlled by water or energy limitations on evapotranspiration and that modulates the scaling of ΔT with city size.

Xylem-phloem hydraulic coupling explains multiple osmoregulatory responses to salt stress.

Salinity is known to affect plant productivity by limiting leaf-level carbon exchange, root water uptake, and carbohydrates transport in the phloem. However, the mechanisms through which plants respond to salt exposure by adjusting leaf gas exchange and xylem-phloem flow are still mostly unexplored. A physically based model coupling xylem, leaf, and phloem flows is here developed to explain different osmoregulation patterns across species.

Friction factor for turbulent open channel flow covered by vegetation.

The need for operational models describing the friction factor f in streams remains undisputed given its utility across a plethora of hydrological and hydraulic applications concerned with shallow inertial flows. For small-scale roughness elements uniformly covering the wetted parameter of a wide channel, the Darcy-Weisbach f = 8(u/U) is widely used at very high Reynolds numbers, where u is friction velocity related to the surface kinematic stress, U = Q/A is bulk velocity, Q is flow rate, and A is cross-sectional area orthogonal to the flow direction. In natural streams, the presence of vegetation introduces additional complications to quantifying f, the subject of the present work.

Increasing atmospheric humidity and CO concentration alleviate forest mortality risk.

Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry.

The effect of plant water storage on water fluxes within the coupled soil-plant system.

In addition to buffering plants from water stress during severe droughts, plant water storage (PWS) alters many features of the spatio-temporal dynamics of water movement in the soil-plant system. How PWS impacts water dynamics and drought resilience is explored using a multi-layer porous media model. The model numerically resolves soil-plant hydrodynamics by coupling them to leaf-level gas exchange and soil-root interfacial layers.

Do the energy fluxes and surface conductance of boreal coniferous forests in Europe scale with leaf area?

Earth observing systems are now routinely used to infer leaf area index (LAI) given its significance in spatial aggregation of land surface fluxes. Whether LAI is an appropriate scaling parameter for daytime growing season energy budget, surface conductance (G ), water- and light-use efficiency and surface-atmosphere coupling of European boreal coniferous forests was explored using eddy-covariance (EC) energy and CO fluxes. The observed scaling relations were then explained using a biophysical multilayer soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer model as well as by a bulk G representation.

Bottlenecks in turbulent kinetic energy spectra predicted from structure function inflections using the Von Kármán-Howarth equation.

The compensated three-dimensional turbulent kinetic energy spectrum exhibits a peculiar bump at wave numbers in the vicinity of the crossover from inertial to viscous regimes due to pile up in turbulent kinetic energy, a phenomenon referred to as the bottleneck effect. The origin of this bump is linked to an inflection point in the second-order structure function in physical space caused by competition between vortex stretching and viscous diffusion mechanisms. The bump location and magnitude are reasonably predicted from a novel analytical solution to the Von Kármán-Howarth equation reflecting the competition between these two mechanisms and accounting for variable structure skewness with decreasing scale.

Cospectral budget of turbulence explains the bulk properties of smooth pipe flow.

Connections between the wall-normal turbulent velocity spectrum E(ww)(k) at wave number k and the mean velocity profile (MVP) are explored in pressure-driven flows confined within smooth walls at moderate to high bulk Reynolds numbers (Re). These connections are derived via a cospectral budget for the longitudinal (u') and wall-normal (w') velocity fluctuations, which include a production term due to mean shear interacting with E(ww)(k), viscous effects, and a decorrelation between u' and w' by pressure-strain effects [=π(k)]. The π(k) is modeled using a conventional Rotta-like return-to-isotropy closure but adjusted to include the effects of isotropization of the production term.

Secondary dispersal driven by overland flow in drylands: Review and mechanistic model development.

Seed dispersal alters gene flow, reproduction, migration and ultimately spatial organization of dryland ecosystems. Because many seeds in drylands lack adaptations for long-distance dispersal, seed transport by secondary processes such as tumbling in the wind or mobilization in overland flow plays a dominant role in determining where seeds ultimately germinate. Here, recent developments in modeling runoff generation in spatially complex dryland ecosystems are reviewed with the aim of proposing improvements to mechanistic modeling of seed dispersal processes.

Two phenomenological constants explain similarity laws in stably stratified turbulence.

In stably stratified turbulent flows, the mixing efficiency associated with eddy diffusivity for heat, or equivalently the turbulent Prandtl number (Pr(t)), is fraught with complex dynamics originating from the scalewise interplay between shear generation of turbulence and its dissipation by density gradients. A large corpus of data and numerical simulations agree on a near-universal relation between Pr(t) and the Richardson number (R(i)), which encodes the relative importance of buoyancy dissipation to mechanical production of turbulent kinetic energy. The Pr(t)-R(i) relation is shown to be derivable solely from the cospectral budgets for momentum and heat fluxes if a Rotta-like return to isotropy closure for the pressure-strain effects and Kolmogorov's theory for turbulent cascade are invoked.

Increasing water use efficiency along the C3 to C4 evolutionary pathway: a stomatal optimization perspective.

C4 photosynthesis evolved independently numerous times, probably in response to declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but also to high temperatures and aridity, which enhance water losses through transpiration. Here, the environmental factors controlling stomatal behaviour of leaf-level carbon and water exchange were examined across the evolutionary continuum from C3 to C4 photosynthesis at current (400 μmol mol(-1)) and low (280 μmol mol(-1)) atmospheric CO2 conditions. To this aim, a stomatal optimization model was further developed to describe the evolutionary continuum from C3 to C4 species within a unified framework.

Implications of nonrandom seed abscission and global stilling for migration of wind-dispersed plant species.

Migration of plant populations is a potential survival response to climate change that depends critically on seed dispersal. Biological and physical factors determine dispersal and migration of wind-dispersed species. Recent field and wind tunnel studies demonstrate biological adaptations that bias seed release toward conditions of higher wind velocity, promoting longer dispersal distances and faster migration.

Mean scalar concentration profile in a sheared and thermally stratified atmospheric surface layer.

Using only dimensional considerations, Monin and Obukhov proposed a "universal" stability correction function φ(c)(ζ) that accounts for distortions caused by thermal stratification to the mean scalar concentration profile in the atmospheric surface layer when the flow is stationary, planar homogeneous, fully turbulent, and lacking any subsidence. For nearly 6 decades, their analysis provided the basic framework for almost all operational models and data interpretation in the lower atmosphere. However, the canonical shape of φ(c)(ζ) and the departure from the Reynold's analogy continue to defy theoretical explanation.