Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change.

We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia's Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around -50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states.

Plant profit maximization improves predictions of European forest responses to drought.

Knowledge of how water stress impacts the carbon and water cycles is a key uncertainty in terrestrial biosphere models. We tested a new profit maximization model, where photosynthetic uptake of CO is optimally traded against plant hydraulic function, as an alternative to the empirical functions commonly used in models to regulate gas exchange during periods of water stress. We conducted a multi-site evaluation of this model at the ecosystem scale, before and during major droughts in Europe.

The plumbing of land surface models: is poor performance a result of methodology or data quality?

The PALS Land sUrface Model Benchmarking Evaluation pRoject (PLUMBER) illustrated the value of prescribing performance targets in model intercomparisons. It showed that the performance of turbulent energy flux predictions from different land surface models, at a broad range of flux tower sites using common evaluation metrics, was on average worse than relatively simple empirical models. For sensible heat fluxes, all land surface models were outperformed by a linear regression against downward shortwave radiation.

Which are the most important parameters for modelling carbon assimilation in boreal Norway spruce under elevated [CO(2)] and temperature conditions?

Photosynthesis is highly responsive to environmental and physiological variables, including phenology, foliage nitrogen (N) content, atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]), irradiation (Q), air temperature (T) and vapour pressure deficit (D). Each of these responses is likely to be modified by long-term changes in climatic conditions such as rising air temperature and [CO2]. When modelling photosynthesis under climatic changes, which parameters are then most important to calibrate for future conditions? To assess this, we used measurements of shoot carbon assimilation rates and microclimate conditions collected at Flakaliden, northern Sweden.