Status of coral, giant clam and sea cucumber communities including CITES listed species on a remote Australian coral reef atoll and the potential impact of illegal fishing.

Following a recent dramatic increase in illegal fishing by Indonesian fishing vessels in Australian waters in 2022, we conducted an extensive survey of coral reef communities covering 33,000 m at Mermaid Reef Marine Park in the Rowley Shoals off north-western Australia in July 2022. Species richness of sea cucumbers was 13 species (three CITES listed) and 6 species of giant clams (all CITES listed). The most abundant sea cucumber species were the low or intermediate value, asexually reproducing species Holothuria atra and H.

Spatial modelling for population replacement of mosquito vectors at continental scale.

Malaria is one of the deadliest vector-borne diseases in the world. Researchers are developing new genetic and conventional vector control strategies to attempt to limit its burden. Novel control strategies require detailed safety assessment to ensure responsible and successful deployments.

Predicting the spread and persistence of genetically modified dominant sterile male mosquitoes.

Background: Reproductive containment provides an opportunity to implement a staged-release strategy for genetic control of malaria vectors, in particular allowing predictions about the spread and persistence of (self-limiting) sterile and male-biased strains to be compared to outcomes before moving to (self-sustaining) gene-drive strains.

Methods: In this study, we: (i) describe a diffusion-advection-reaction model of the spread and persistence of a single cohort of male mosquitoes; (ii) elicit informative prior distributions for model parameters, for wild-type (WT) and genetically modified dominant sterile strains (DSM); (iii) estimate posterior distributions for WT strains using data from published mark-recapture-release (MRR) experiments, with inference performed through the Delayed-Rejection Adaptive Metropolis algorithm; and (iv) weight prior distributions, in order to make predictions about genetically modified strains using Bayes factors calculated for the WT strains.

Results: If a single cohort of 5000 genetically modified dominant sterile male mosquitoes are released at the same location as previous MRR experiments with their WT counterparts, there is a 90% probability that the expected number of released mosquitoes will fall to < 1 in 10 days, and that by 12 days there will be a 99% probability that no mosquitoes will be found more than 150 m from the release location.

Quantifying the risk of vector-borne disease transmission attributable to genetically modified vectors.

The relative risk of disease transmission caused by the potential release of transgenic vectors, such as through sterile insect technique or gene drive systems, is assessed with comparison with wild-type vectors. The probabilistic risk framework is demonstrated with an assessment of the relative risk of lymphatic filariasis, malaria and o'nyong'nyong arbovirus transmission by mosquito vectors to human hosts given a released transgenic strain of carrying a dominant sterile male gene construct. Harm is quantified by a logarithmic loss function that depends on the causal risk ratio, which is a quotient of basic reproduction numbers derived from mathematical models of disease transmission.

Effects of ignoring survey design information for data reuse.

Data are currently being used, and reused, in ecological research at an unprecedented rate. To ensure appropriate reuse however, we need to ask the question: "Are aggregated databases currently providing the right information to enable effective and unbiased reuse?" We investigate this question, with a focus on designs that purposefully favor the selection of sampling locations (upweighting the probability of selection of some locations). These designs are common and examples are those designs that have uneven inclusion probabilities or are stratified.