The MISCAN-Fadia continuous tumor growth model for breast cancer.

The MISCAN-Fadia model was used to analyze the impact of screening and adjuvant treatment on U.S. breast cancer mortality between 1975 and 2000.

Model-based analysis of trial data: microfilaria and worm-productivity loss after diethylcarbamazine-albendazole or ivermectin-albendazole combination therapy against Wuchereria bancrofti.

Objectives: To determine the efficacies of combinations of ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine and albendazole, which are recommended for use in mass treatment programmes against lymphatic filariasis.

Method: Review of published trends in microfilarial (mf) intensities after treatment with these combination therapies. By fitting a mathematical model of treatment effects to the trial data, we quantified the efficacy of treatment, distinguishing between the killing of mf (mf loss) and a reduction in mf production by adult worms (worm-productivity loss).

Effects of ivermectin and diethylcarbamazine on microfilariae and overall microfilaria production in bancroftian filariasis.

Ivermectin and diethylcarbamazine (DEC) are used in mass treatment programs for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis because of their strong effects on microfilaremia. However, the effects of treatment on adult worms and the degree of individual variation in efficacy are unclear. We analyzed series of microfilaria (Mf) counts from individuals treated with a single dose of 400 microg/kg ivermectin or 6 mg/kg DEC (N = 23 in each group; 1 year follow-up).

Meta-analysis of age-prevalence patterns in lymphatic filariasis: no decline in microfilaraemia prevalence in older age groups as predicted by models with acquired immunity.

The role of acquired immunity in lymphatic filariasis is uncertain. Assuming that immunity against new infections develops gradually with accumulated experience of infection, models predict a decline in prevalence after teenage or early adulthood. A strong indication for acquired immunity was found in longitudinal data from Pondicherry, India, where Mf prevalence was highest around the age of 20 and declined thereafter.

The future incidence of leprosy: a scenario analysis.

Objective: To investigate the impact of the current strategy for the elimination of leprosy on its incidence and to assess the consequences of failure to sustain this strategy.

Methods: Scenarios for assessing the impact of the elimination strategy were implemented in a computer simulation program. The scenarios reflected the assumptions made regarding contagiousness, transmission and bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination.