Quantitative assessments of the relationship between health and medical treatment are of great importance to policy makers. To overcome endogeneity problems we formulate and estimate a tractable dynamic factor model where observed health outcomes are driven by the individual's latent health. The dynamics of latent health reflects both exogenous health deterioration and endogenous health investments.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFUsing the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWe document the association between war-related shocks in childhood and adult outcomes for Europeans born during the first half of the twentieth century. Using a variety of data, at both the macro- and the micro-level, we address the following questions: What are the patterns of mortality among Europeans born during this period? Do war-related shocks in childhood and adolescence help predict adult health, human capital and wellbeing of the survivors? Are there differences by sex, socio-economic status in childhood, and age when the shocks occurred? At the macro-level, we show that the secular trend towards lower mortality was interrupted by dramatic increases in mortality during World War I, the Spanish Flu, the Spanish Civil War, and World War II, and we quantify the size of these mortality shocks. Different patterns characterize these high-mortality episodes, with substantial variation by country, sex and age group.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThis paper explores the relationship between the two main dimensions of early-life environment, namely disease burden (measured by infant mortality) and economic conditions (measured by income or consumption per capita), and height and body-mass index (BMI) for six annual cohorts of young Italian men born between 1973 and 1978. By combining micro-level data on height and weight with regional- and province-level information, we are able to link individual height and BMI at age 18 to regional and provincial averages of environmental variables in the year of birth. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that, in rich low-mortality settings, the negative effects of childhood disease dominate the positive selection effects of mortality.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFResearchers modeling historical heights have typically relied on the restrictive assumption of a normal distribution, only the mean of which is affected by age, income, nutrition, disease, and similar influences. To avoid these restrictive assumptions, we develop a new semiparametric approach in which covariates are allowed to affect the entire distribution without imposing any parametric shape. We apply our method to a new database of height distributions for Italian provinces, drawn from conscription records, of unprecedented length and geographical disaggregation.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThis paper studies the relationship between medical compliance and health outcomes - hospitalization and mortality rates - using a large panel of patients residing in a local health authority in Italy. These data allow us to follow individual patients through all their accesses to public health care services until they either die or leave the local health authority. We adopt a disease specific approach, concentrating on hypertensive patients treated with ACE-inhibitors.
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