Efficacy of Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in reducing the risk of severe outcome in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection: a real-life full-matched case-control study (SAVALO Study).

Background: Ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir (N/r) is an antiviral which targets the main viral protease, administered to prevent the progression of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients at high risk for severe COVID-19. We present a real-life case-control study evaluating the efficacy of N/r therapy in SARS-CoV-2 omicron variants positive outpatients in Campania region, Italy, with the aim of assessing the occurrence of three outcomes (hospital admission, admission in ICU and death) in cases and controls.

Methods: We enrolled SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects that came to our attention in Early antiviral treatment ambulatory of Infectious Diseases ward of University Federico II of Naples, Italy from January 1st, 2022, to December 31st, 2022, during the first five days from symptoms occurrence.

A model-based approach for historical borrowing, with an application to neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

Bayesian historical borrowing has recently attracted growing interest due to the increasing availability of historical control data, as well as improved computational methodology and software. In this article, we argue that the statistical models used for borrowing may be suboptimal when they do not adjust for differing factors across historical studies such as covariates, dosing regimen, etc. We propose an alternative approach to address these shortcomings.

Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence.

CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their inter-related contribution to the observed surveillance data. This paper, extends existing approaches to age-specific settings, permitting the joint estimation of age- and time-specific incidence and diagnosis rates and the derivation of other epidemiological quantities of interest. This allows the identification of specific age-groups at higher risk of infection, which is crucial in directing public health interventions.