Serological evidence of ongoing transmission of dengue virus in permanent residents of Key West, Florida.

Introduction: Dengue fever is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease in the world, with 40% of the global population at risk of infection. Dengue virus is responsible for infections in over 100 countries, including the Americas and Caribbean Basin; however, it has been largely eradicated from the United States through the implementation of effective vector control programs. However, between 2009 and 2010, 27 permanent residents of Key West, Florida, were reported to have locally acquired infections, marking the first autochthonous cases detected in Florida since 1934.

Parameterization and sensitivity analysis of a complex simulation model for mosquito population dynamics, dengue transmission, and their control.

Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters.

Evaluation of a novel emergence trap to study Culex mosquitoes in urban catch basins.

Stormwater catch basins in urban areas provide important larval habitat for Culex mosquitoes. In this study we quantified adult Culex emergence using a newly designed emergence trap deployed in catch basins in suburban Chicago, IL. Traps were deployed from late June to mid-October, 2009-10, in 19 catch basins for a total of 461 trap-days.

Epidemiology of dengue virus in Iquitos, Peru 1999 to 2005: interepidemic and epidemic patterns of transmission.

Background: Comprehensive, longitudinal field studies that monitor both disease and vector populations for dengue viruses are urgently needed as a pre-requisite for developing locally adaptable prevention programs or to appropriately test and license new vaccines.

Methodology And Principal Findings: We report the results from such a study spanning 5 years in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru where DENV infection was monitored serologically among approximately 2,400 members of a neighborhood-based cohort and through school-based absenteeism surveillance for active febrile illness among a subset of this cohort. At baseline, 80% of the study population had DENV antibodies, seroprevalence increased with age, and significant geographic variation was observed, with neighborhood-specific age-adjusted rates ranging from 67.

Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

Background: Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes.

Aedes aegypti in Jamaica, West Indies: container productivity profiles to inform control strategies.

Objective: To describe the Aedes aegypti container profile in the three parishes of Portland, St. Anns and St. Catherine, Jamaica.

Simulation models examining the effect of Brugian filariasis on dengue epidemics.

Concurrent ingestion of microfilariae (mf) and arboviruses by mosquitoes can enhance the transmission of virus compared with when virus is ingested alone. We studied the effect of mf enhancement on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of dengue 1 virus within Aedes aegypti mosquitoes by feeding mosquitoes on blood that either contained virus plus Brugia malayi mf or virus only. Mosquitoes were sampled over time to determine viral dissemination rates.

Toxorhynchites as biocontrol agents.

Toxorhynchites is an unusual and interesting genus of large, non-biting mosquitoes. In spite of their size, they are--like many species of mosquitoes--completely harmless to man. The larvae are predaceous on other mosquitoes and aquatic organisms that inhabit both natural and artificial containers.

Abridged pupa identification key to the common container-breeding mosquitoes in urban Southeast Asia.

Pupal surveys have been advocated as an alternative or surrogate surveillance method for estimating densities of adult Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Usually, this survey strategy has required that collected pupae eclose to adults before attempting species identification. Using the pupal survey method in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, this rearing step was obviated with the pupal morphological key described herein for identifying preserved or live pupae.

Sample sizes for identifying the key types of container occupied by dengue-vector pupae: the use of entropy in analyses of compositional data.

A method has been developed for estimating the sample sizes needed to identify categories that comprise a large proportion of a compositional data-set. The method is to be used in the design of surveys of mosquito pupae, for identifying the key container types from which the majority of adult dengue vectors emerge. Although a finite-population correction was devised for estimating the mean of a negative binomial distribution, other complications of parametric approaches make them unlikely to yield methods simple enough to be practically applicable.

Temporal and geographic patterns of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) production in Iquitos, Peru.

Large-scale longitudinal cohort studies are necessary to characterize temporal and geographic variation in Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) production patterns and to develop targeted dengue control strategies that will reduce disease. We carried out pupal/demographic surveys in a circuit of approximately 6,000 houses, 10 separate times, between January 1999 and August 2002 in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru.

Transmission thresholds for dengue in terms of Aedes aegypti pupae per person with discussion of their utility in source reduction efforts.

The expense and ineffectiveness of drift-based insecticide aerosols to control dengue epidemics has led to suppression strategies based on eliminating larval breeding sites. With the notable but short-lived exceptions of Cuba and Singapore, these source reduction efforts have met with little documented success; failure has chiefly been attributed to inadequate participation of the communities involved. The present work attempts to estimate transmission thresholds for dengue based on an easily-derived statistic, the standing crop of Aedes aegypti pupae per person in the environment.

New procedures to estimate water temperatures and water depths for application in climate-dengue modeling.

Two new approaches have been developed to estimate water temperatures and water depths in containers that commonly are used as breeding sites for mosquitoes, the primary vectors of dengue viruses. These estimates are incorporated in recently developed stochastic simulation models used to describe the daily dynamics of dengue virus transmission in the urban environment. Water temperature estimates are provided through a regression model that includes meteorological variables not previously used; results show that they are significantly better than those used in previous dengue transmission models.

Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change.

Climate factors influence the transmission of dengue fever, the world's most widespread vector-borne virus. We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on dengue transmission using computer-based simulation analysis to link temperature output from three climate general circulation models (GCMs) to a dengue vectorial capacity equation. Our outcome measure, epidemic potential, is the reciprocal of the critical mosquito density threshold of the vectorial capacity equation.

Potential changes in the distribution of dengue transmission under climate warming.

The purpose of the present paper is to document an initial attempt to quantify the influence of warming temperatures on the intensity and distribution of dengue transmission throughout the world using an expression of vectorial capacity modified to reflect the role of temperature on development and survival of the vector and virus. We rearranged the traditional vectorial capacity expression (the mean number of potentially infective contacts made by a mosquito population per infectious person per unit time) to develop an equation for the critical density threshold, an estimate of the number of adult female vectors required to just maintain the virus in a susceptible human population. In this expression, temperature influences adult survival, the lengths of the gonotrophic cycle and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus in the vector, and vector size, a factor that indirectly influences the biting rate.

Pupal survey: an epidemiologically significant surveillance method for Aedes aegypti: an example using data from Trinidad.

This report documents the results of a country-wide pupal survey of Aedes aegypti (L.) conducted in Trinidad. The survey was designed to identify the important Ae.

A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: literature analysis, model development, preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results.

We have developed a pair of stochastic simulation models that describe the daily dynamics of dengue virus transmission in the urban environment. Our goal has been to construct comprehensive models that take into account the majority of factors known to influence dengue epidemiology. The models have an orientation toward site-specific data and are designed to be used by operational programs as well as researchers.

Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae): a statistical model of the role of temperature, photoperiod, and geography in the induction of egg diapause.

Aedes albopictus (Skuse) lays eggs refractory to hatching in response to several environmental cues. The goal of this statistical treatment was to quantify the role and interaction of latitude and country of origin (Japan and the United States), photoperiod, rearing/holding temperature, and a newly identified element, elevation of the site of origin, with critical photoperiod (Cpp). We also describe the development of an equation relating the incidence of diapause to daylength, rearing/holding temperature, and latitude and elevation of the site of origin, an equation useful in the development of a simulation model of the population dynamics and distribution of Ae.

Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (diptera: Culicidae): simulation results and validation.

The container-inhabiting mosquito simulation model (CIMSiM) is a weather-driven, dynamic life table simulation model of Aedes aegypti (L.) and similar nondiapausing Aedes mosquitoes that inhabit artificial and natural containers. This paper presents a validation of CIMSiM simulating Ae.

Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): analysis of the literature and model development.

The container-inhabiting mosquito simulation model (CIMSiM) is a weather-driven, dynamic life table simulation model of Aedes aegypti (L.). It is designed to provide a framework for related models of similar mosquitoes which inhibit artificial and natural containers.

Impact of minor reductions in adult and larval survival, fecundity and hatch on the population dynamics of Psorophora columbiae: a simulation study.

Laboratory work has shown that mosquitoes obtaining blood meals from animals treated with ivermectin exhibit lowered adult survival, fecundity, egg hatch and larval survival. Computer simulation evaluated the consequences of this phenomenon in field populations of Psorophora columbiae feeding on cattle in the rice agroecosystem. Results suggest that rather minor reductions, on the order of 10% below normal, in these life history parameters would significantly affect the population dynamics of this species in this particular system.

Effects of ivermectin (MK-933) on the reproductive rate of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae).

Aedes aegypti (L.) females were blood fed a single time on rabbits previously injected subcutaneously with ivermectin at 10 or 50 times the labeled dose recommended for cattle (0.2 mg [AI]/kg body weight).