Improved correlation of human Q fever incidence to modelled C. burnetii concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model.

Background: Atmospheric dispersion models (ADMs) may help to assess human exposure to airborne pathogens. However, there is as yet limited quantified evidence that modelled concentrations are indeed associated to observed human incidence.

Methods: We correlated human Q fever (caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii) incidence data in the Netherlands to modelled concentrations from three spatial exposure models: 1) a NULL model with a uniform concentration distribution, 2) a DISTANCE model with concentrations proportional to the distance between the source and residential addresses of patients, and 3) concentrations modelled by an ADM using three simple emission profiles.