A cautious approach to subsidies for environmental sustainability.

Transformational change is possible, but design and implementation must seek to avoid lock-in.

The path to scientifically sound biodiversity valuation in the context of the Global Biodiversity Framework.

Successful implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework requires identifying a process for measuring and valuing changes in biodiversity that build on the recognition that economics and valuation must play a key role in "halting and reversing" biodiversity loss. Here, we discuss considerations for a practical path to valuing changes in biodiversity. Framing changes in the value of biodiversity as a summary of changes in certain natural assets enables leveraging existing approaches and international standards associated with environmental-economic accounting.

Mainstreaming nature in US federal policy.

Integrated policy changes must be cross-sectoral, appropriate, strategic, and evidence-based.

Leveraging natural capital accounting to support businesses with nature-related risk assessments and disclosures.

Nature loss threatens businesses, the global economy and financial stability. Understanding and addressing these risks for business will require credible measurement approaches and data. This paper explores how natural capital accounting (NCA) can support business data and information needs related to nature, including disclosures aligned with the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures recommendations.

Accounting for the increasing benefits from scarce ecosystems.

As people get richer, and ecosystem services scarcer, policy-relevant estimates of ecosystem value must rise.

Challenges of integrating economics into epidemiological analysis of and policy responses to emerging infectious diseases.

COVID-19 has shown that the consequences of a pandemic are wider-reaching than cases and deaths. Morbidity and mortality are important direct costs, but infectious diseases generate other direct and indirect benefits and costs as the economy responds to these shocks: some people lose, others gain and people modify their behaviours in ways that redistribute these benefits and costs. These additional effects feedback on health outcomes to create a complicated interdependent system of health and non-health outcomes.

Understanding the Barriers to Pooled SARS-CoV-2 Testing in the United States.

Pooled testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) detection is instrumental for increasing test capacity while decreasing test cost. Pooled testing programs permit sustainable, long-term surveillance measures, which are essential for the early detection of virus resurgence in communities or the emergence of variants of concern. While numerous pooled approaches have been proposed to increase test capacity, uptake by laboratories has been limited.

Maximizing the Efficiency of Active Case Finding for SARS-CoV-2 Using Bandit Algorithms.

Even as vaccination for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) expands in the United States, cases will linger among unvaccinated individuals for at least the next year, allowing the spread of the coronavirus to continue in communities across the country. Detecting these infections, particularly asymptomatic ones, is critical to stemming further transmission of the virus in the months ahead. This will require active surveillance efforts in which these undetected cases are proactively sought out rather than waiting for individuals to present to testing sites for diagnosis.

Measuring voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Staying home and avoiding unnecessary contact is an important part of the effort to contain COVID-19 and limit deaths. Every state in the United States enacted policies to encourage distancing and some mandated staying home. Understanding how these policies interact with individuals' voluntary responses to the COVID-19 epidemic is a critical initial step in understanding the role of these nonpharmaceutical interventions in transmission dynamics and assessing policy impacts.

Risk compensation and face mask mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Face masks are an important component in controlling COVID-19, and policy orders to wear masks are common. However, behavioral responses are seldom additive, and exchanging one protective behavior for another could undermine the COVID-19 policy response. We use SafeGraph smart device location data and variation in the date that US states and counties issued face mask mandates as a set of natural experiments to investigate risk compensation behavior.

Pooling saliva to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing capacity.

Expanding testing capabilities is integral to managing the further spread of SARS-CoV-2 and developing reopening strategies, particularly in regards to identifying and isolating asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals. Central to meeting testing demands are specimens that can be easily and reliably collected and laboratory capacity to rapidly ramp up to scale. We and others have demonstrated that high and consistent levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be detected in saliva from COVID-19 inpatients, outpatients, and asymptomatic individuals.

A COVID-19 Risk Assessment for the US Labor Force.

The consequences of COVID-19 infection varies substantially based on individual social risk factors and predisposing health conditions. Understanding this variability may be critical for targeting COVID-19 control measures, resources and policies, including efforts to return people back to the workplace. We compiled individual level data from the National Health Information Survey and Quarterly Census of Earnings and Wages to estimate the number of at-risk workers for each US county and industry, accounting for both social and health risks.

The economics of conservation debt: a natural capital approach to revealed valuation of ecological dynamics.

Some species are valued for their direct usefulness to society, through immediate financial returns from market activities such as harvesting or ecotourism. But many are valued for their passive usefulness, i.e.

Impact of school closures for COVID-19 on the US health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is leading to social (physical) distancing policies worldwide, including in the USA. Some of the first actions taken by governments are the closing of schools. The evidence that mandatory school closures reduce the number of cases and, ultimately, mortality comes from experience with influenza or from models that do not include the effect of school closure on the health-care labour force.

Assessing ecological infrastructure investments.

Conventional markets can underprovide ecosystem services. Deliberate creation of a market for ecosystem services [e.g.

Path-dependent institutions drive alternative stable states in conservation.

Understanding why some renewable resources are overharvested while others are conserved remains an important challenge. Most explanations focus on institutional or ecological differences among resources. Here, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that conservation and overharvest can be alternative stable states within the same exclusive-resource management system because of path-dependent processes, including slow institutional adaptation.

Species dispersal and biodiversity in human-dominated metacommunities.

The concept of the Anthropocene is based on the idea that human impacts are now the primary drivers of changes in the earth's systems, including ecological systems. In many cases, the behavior that causes ecosystem change is itself triggered by ecological factors. Yet most ecological models still treat human impacts as given, and frequently as constant.

The allocation of time and risk of Lyme: A case of ecosystem service income and substitution effects.

Forests are often touted for their ecosystem services, including outdoor recreation. Historically forests were a source of danger and were avoided. Forests continue to be reservoirs for infectious diseases and their vectors - a disservice.

Linking Time-Use Data to Explore Health Outcomes: Choosing to Vaccinate Against Influenza.

To inform public health and medical decision makers concerning vaccination interventions, a methodology for merging and analyzing detailed activity data and health outcomes is presented. The objective is to investigate relationships between individual's activity choices and their decision to receive an influenza vaccination. Data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) are used to predict vaccination rates in the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data between 2003 and 2013 by using combined socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.

Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems.

We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures.

Testing the feasibility of a hypothetical whaling-conservation permit market in Norway.

A cap-and-trade system for managing whale harvests represents a potentially useful approach to resolve the current gridlock in international whale management. The establishment of whale permit markets, open to both whalers and conservationists, could reveal the strength of conservation demand, about which little is known. This lack of knowledge makes it difficult to predict the outcome of a hypothetical whale permit market.

Measuring the value of groundwater and other forms of natural capital.

Valuing natural capital is fundamental to measuring sustainability. The United Nations Environment Programme, World Bank, and other agencies have called for inclusion of the value of natural capital in sustainability metrics, such as inclusive wealth. Much has been written about the importance of natural capital, but consistent, rigorous valuation approaches compatible with the pricing of traditional forms of capital have remained elusive.