Derailment and depression in college: Tests of 3-year predictive capacity and moderation by self-reflection, brooding, perfectionism, and cognitive flexibility.

While rich with opportunities for self-exploration, the transition to and through college is stressful, often associated with the onset or exacerbation of mental illness. Attending to these characteristics, this preregistered study asked whether derailment-or difficulties reconciling perceived identity change-in freshman year predicts senior depressive symptoms, and how individual risks for depression relate to this association. Derailment and depressive symptoms evidenced significant 3-year stability, and these constructs had positive cross-sectional associations in both freshman and senior year.

Invariance of the Derailment Scale-6: Testing the measurement and correlates of derailment across adulthood.

Derailment, a newly mapped construct describing difficulty reconciling perceived changes in identity and self-direction, offers researchers a unique lens for understanding adjustment. As identity development is a lifelong process, establishing the impartiality of the primary measure for derailment across a broad age range is necessary. Across a cross-sectional sample of emerging, young, and midlife adults ( = 1,420), we tested preregistered hypotheses concerning whether the Derailment Scale-6 (DS-6) demonstrates measurement invariance, and the extent to which levels and correlates of derailment differ with age.

The Taboo Against Explicit Causal Inference in Nonexperimental Psychology.

Causal inference is a central goal of research. However, most psychologists refrain from explicitly addressing causal research questions and avoid drawing causal inference on the basis of nonexperimental evidence. We argue that this taboo against causal inference in nonexperimental psychology impairs study design and data analysis, holds back cumulative research, leads to a disconnect between original findings and how they are interpreted in subsequent work, and limits the relevance of nonexperimental psychology for policymaking.

Positive affect and chronic pain: a preregistered systematic review and meta-analysis.

Chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) is a significant health burden among adults. Standard behavioral therapies typically focus on targeting negative affect (NA) and yield only modest treatment effects. The aims of this study were to systematically review and investigate the association between positive affect (PA) and pain severity among adults with CNCP.

The Assumptions of Direction Dependence Analysis.

Direction dependence analysis attempts to discern the direction of a causal effect, using statistical features of the data, such as skew and kurtosis of variables, and their residuals in regression models. Wiedermann and Sebastian discuss the use of this analysis in the context of mediation, and introduce methods to distinguish three different causal structures. In this commentary, I highlight some connections to literature in computer science, review the assumptions of the proposed analysis critically, and provide an example in which I argue that the analysis of Wiedermann and Sebastian can yield incorrect conclusions.

Analysis of Variance Models with Stochastic Group Weights.

The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is still one of the most widely used statistical methods in the social sciences. This article is about stochastic group weights in ANOVA models - a neglected aspect in the literature. Stochastic group weights are present whenever the experimenter does not determine the exact group sizes before conducting the experiment.

Local fit evaluation of structural equation models using graphical criteria.

Evaluation of model fit is critically important for every structural equation model (SEM), and sophisticated methods have been developed for this task. Among them are the χ² goodness-of-fit test, decomposition of the χ², derived measures like the popular root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) or comparative fit index (CFI), or inspection of residuals or modification indices. Many of these methods provide a approach to model fit evaluation: A single index is computed that quantifies the fit of the entire SEM to the data.

Does Gender of Administrator Matter? National Study Explores U.S. University Administrators' Attitudes About Retaining Women Professors in STEM.

Omnipresent calls for more women in university administration presume women will prioritize using resources and power to increase female representation, especially in STEM fields where women are most underrepresented. However, empirical evidence is lacking for systematic differences in female vs. male administratorsŠ attitudes.

The effects of exposure to objective coherence on perceived meaning in life: a preregistered direct replication of Heintzelman, Trent & King (2013).

Having a sense of meaning in life (MIL) has been acknowledged as a catalyst to psychological flourishing. As such, understanding ways to promote MIL represents a worthy goal for those interested in bolstering positive outcomes. This study sought to replicate the findings of Heintzelman, Trent & King (2013 , 991-998 (doi:10.

What is the biological reality of gene-environment interaction estimates? An assessment of bias in developmental models.

Background: Standard models used to test gene-environment interaction (G × E) hypotheses make the causal assumption that there are no unobserved variables that could be biasing the interaction estimate. Whether this assumption can be met in nonexperimental studies is unclear because the interactive biological pathways from genetic polymorphisms and environments to behavior, and the confounders that can be introduced along these pathways, are often not delineated. This is problematic in the context of studies focused on caregiver-child dyads, in which common genes and environments induce gene-environment correlation.

I wish I had (not) taken a gap-year? The psychological and attainment outcomes of different post-school pathways.

Existing gap-year research indicates a number of benefits of a gap-year at the end of school and before university enrollment. Life span theory of control, however, suggests that direct goal investment, rather than delay, at developmental transitions is associated with more adaptive outcomes. Comparing these perspectives, the authors undertook 2 studies: 1 in Finland (N = 384, waves = 3) and 1 in Australia (N = 2,259, waves = 5) both with an initial time wave in the last year of high school.

A Cautious Note on Auxiliary Variables That Can Increase Bias in Missing Data Problems.

The treatment of missing data in the social sciences has changed tremendously during the last decade. Modern missing data techniques such as multiple imputation and full-information maximum likelihood are used much more frequently. These methods assume that data are missing at random.

Theory and Analysis of Total, Direct, and Indirect Causal Effects.

Mediation analysis, or more generally models with direct and indirect effects, are commonly used in the behavioral sciences. As we show in our illustrative example, traditional methods of mediation analysis that omit confounding variables can lead to systematically biased direct and indirect effects, even in the context of a randomized experiment. Therefore, several definitions of causal effects in mediation models have been presented in the literature (Baron & Kenny, 1986 ; Imai, Keele, & Tingley, 2010 ; Pearl, 2012 ).

Continuously Cumulating Meta-Analysis and Replicability.

The current crisis in scientific psychology about whether our findings are irreproducible was presaged years ago by Tversky and Kahneman (1971), who noted that even sophisticated researchers believe in the fallacious Law of Small Numbers-erroneous intuitions about how imprecisely sample data reflect population phenomena. Combined with the low power of most current work, this often leads to the use of misleading criteria about whether an effect has replicated. Rosenthal (1990) suggested more appropriate criteria, here labeled the continuously cumulating meta-analytic (CCMA) approach.

Propensity scores as a basis for equating groups: basic principles and application in clinical treatment outcome research.

A propensity score is the probability that a participant is assigned to the treatment group based on a set of baseline covariates. Propensity scores provide an excellent basis for equating treatment groups on a large set of covariates when randomization is not possible. This article provides a nontechnical introduction to propensity scores for clinical researchers.

Understanding the durability of a fire department wellness program.

Objectives: To understand the influences associated with durability and diffusion of benefits of a fire service wellness program.

Methods: Qualitative assessment of group interviews.

Results: Five years following a controlled worksite wellness trial, behavioral improvements were durable and had diffused to control participants.

Personality traits and living arrangements in young adulthood: selection and socialization.

Based on the social investment principle and theories of social relationship differentiation, the present study was conducted to investigate whether personality differences in high school predict young adults' living arrangements (with roommates or a romantic partner, alone, or staying with parents) 2 years later (selection) and whether these different social contexts provoke long-term personality changes (socialization). Using data from a 3-wave longitudinal study of 8,052 high school graduates in Germany, multinomial logistic regression analyses revealed substantial selection effects of the Big Five traits on living arrangements. Propensity score matching was applied to provide a strong test of the socialization effects of these living arrangements.

Ambulatory monitoring in the genetics of psychosomatic medicine.

Psychosomatic disorders are composed of an array of psychological, biologic, and environmental features. The existing evidence points to a role for genetic factors in explaining individual differences in the development and maintenance of a variety of disorders, but studies to date have not shown consistent and replicable effects. As such, the attempt to uncover individual differences in the expression of psychosomatic disorders as a function of genetic architecture requires careful attention to their phenotypic architecture or the various intermediate phenotypes that make up a heterogeneous disorder.

Military training and personality trait development: does the military make the man, or does the man make the military?

Military experience is an important turning point in a person's life and, consequently, is associated with important life outcomes. Using a large longitudinal sample of German males, we examined whether personality traits played a role during this period. Results indicated that personality traits prospectively predicted the decision to enter the military.

The Use of Propensity Scores for Nonrandomized Designs With Clustered Data.

In this article we propose several modeling choices to extend propensity score analysis to clustered data. We describe different possible model specifications for estimation of the propensity score: single-level model, fixed effects model, and two random effects models. We also consider both conditioning within clusters and conditioning across clusters.

A Systematic Review of Propensity Score Methods in the Social Sciences.

The use of propensity scores in psychological and educational research has been steadily increasing in the last 2 to 3 years. However, there are some common misconceptions about the use of different estimation techniques and conditioning choices in the context of propensity score analysis. In addition, reporting practices for propensity score analyses often lack important details that allow other researchers to confidently judge the appropriateness of reported analyses and potentially to replicate published findings.

An Investigation of the Relationship Between Retention in First Grade and Performance on High Stakes Tests in 3 Grade.

The association between grade retention in first grade and passing the third grade state accountability tests, the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS) reading and math, was investigated in a sample of 769 students who were recruited into the study when they were in first grade. Of these 769 students, 165 were retained in first grade and 604 were promoted. Using propensity matching, we created five imputed datasets (average N=321) in which promoted and retained students were matched on 67 comprehensive covariates.

Long-term effects of a worksite health promotion program for firefighters.

Objective: To describe effects of 2 worksite health promotion programs for firefighters, both immediate outcomes and the long-term consequences for 4 years following the interventions.

Methods: At baseline, 599 firefighters were assessed, randomized by fire station to control and 2 different intervention conditions, and reevaluated with 6 annual follow-up measurements.

Results: Both a team-centered peer-taught curriculum and an individual motivational interviewing intervention demonstrated positive effects on BMI, with team effects on nutrition behavior and physical activity at one year.

Campbell's and Rubin's perspectives on causal inference.

Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W.