Bayesian hierarchical vector autoregressive models for patient-level predictive modeling.

Predicting health outcomes from longitudinal health histories is of central importance to healthcare. Observational healthcare databases such as patient diary databases provide a rich resource for patient-level predictive modeling. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical vector autoregressive (VAR) model to predict medical and psychological conditions using multivariate time series data.

Auditory tasks for assessment of sensory function and affective prosody in schizophrenia.

Schizophrenia patients exhibit impairments in auditory-based social cognition, indicated by deficits in detection of prosody, such as affective prosody and basic pitch perception. However, little is known about the psychometric properties of behavioral tests used to assess these functions. The goal of this paper is to characterize the properties of prosody and pitch perception tasks and to investigate whether they can be shortened.

Self-Disclosure and Mental Health Service Use in Socially Anxious Adolescents.

Social anxiety disorder is highly prevalent in adolescence, persistent into adulthood, and associated with multiple impairments. Despite the development of efficacious treatments for socially anxious youth, few affected adolescents receive such treatment. This study examined service use in a sample of high school students ( = 1,574), as well as predictors of treatment delay and factors associated with adolescents' disclosure of social difficulties.

A comparative study of variable selection methods in the context of developing psychiatric screening instruments.

The development of screening instruments for psychiatric disorders involves item selection from a pool of items in existing questionnaires assessing clinical and behavioral phenotypes. A screening instrument should consist of only a few items and have good accuracy in classifying cases and non-cases. Variable/item selection methods such as Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Elastic Net, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, and the two-sample t-test can be used in such context.

Designing a new proof-of-principle trial for treatment of partial seizures to demonstrate efficacy with minimal sample size and duration-a case study.

The ideal proof-of-principle study design provides a strong efficacy signal over the shortest duration, while exposing the fewest patients possible. Data from a large database (Pfizer Inc) which studied add-on pregabalin for the treatment of partial seizures was used to model how duration of baseline, post-randomization treatment period, and number of subjects impact the likelihood of an interpretable efficacy signal. Data from four double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, phase III studies that had at least one 600 mg/day treatment arm were combined.

Remediating organizational functioning in children with ADHD: immediate and long-term effects from a randomized controlled trial.

Objective: The study compared the efficacy of 2 behavioral interventions to ameliorate organization, time management, and planning (OTMP) difficulties in 3rd- to 5th-grade children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

Method: In a dual-site randomized controlled trial, 158 children were assigned to organizational skills training (OST; N = 64); PATHKO, a performance-based intervention that precluded skills training (N = 61); or a wait-list control (WL, N = 33). Treatments were 20 individual clinic-based sessions over 10-12 weeks.

Paradoxical results of adaptive false discovery rate procedures in neuroimaging studies.

Adaptive false discovery rate (FDR) procedures, which offer greater power than the original FDR procedure of Benjamini and Hochberg, are often applied to statistical maps of the brain. When a large proportion of the null hypotheses are false, as in the case of widespread effects such as cortical thinning throughout much of the brain, adaptive FDR methods can surprisingly reject more null hypotheses than not accounting for multiple testing at all-i.e.

A multisite study of the clinical diagnosis of different autism spectrum disorders.

Context: Best-estimate clinical diagnoses of specific autism spectrum disorders (autistic disorder, pervasive developmental disorder-not otherwise specified, and Asperger syndrome) have been used as the diagnostic gold standard, even when information from standardized instruments is available.

Objective: To determine whether the relationships between behavioral phenotypes and clinical diagnoses of different autism spectrum disorders vary across 12 university-based sites.

Design: Multisite observational study collecting clinical phenotype data (diagnostic, developmental, and demographic) for genetic research.