Unmet need and unintended fertility: longitudinal evidence from upper Egypt.

Context: Although unmet need for family planning is a standard measure for evaluating programs' effectiveness in meeting the reproductive needs of individuals, its validity and accuracy in identifying women most at risk of unintended pregnancy have been questioned.

Methods: Women who participated in the 1995 Egypt Demographic and Health Survey in two governorates in Upper Egypt (Assuit and Souhag) were followed for two years (N=2,444); in-depth data on their fertility preferences, contraceptive use and births were gathered in 1996 and 1997. Transitions among contraceptive need categories from 1995 to 1997 are examined, and rates of unintended (mistimed and unwanted) births are calculated according to contraceptive need status at baseline.