The increasing global environmental consequences of a weakening US-China crop trade relationship.

The consideration of tariffs on China's imports of US agricultural products has focused on economic impacts, while the environmental consequences have received less attention. Here we use a global computable general equilibrium model to evaluate long-term crop portfolio changes induced by China's retaliatory agricultural tariffs and thereby assess the environmental stresses imposed by different crop production portfolios based on region-specific and crop-specific databases. We show that China's tariffs cause unintended increases in nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and blue water extraction in the United States as farmers shift from soybeans to more pollution-causing crops.

Estimating induced land use change emissions for sustainable aviation biofuel pathways.

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are expected to play an essential role in achieving the aviation industries' goal of carbon-neutral growth. However, producing biomass-based SAFs may induce changes in global land use and the associated carbon stock. The induced land use change (ILUC) emissions, as a part of the full life-cycle emissions for SAF pathways, will affect whether and to what extent SAFs reduce emissions compared with petroleum-based jet fuels.

US biofuel production and policy: implications for land use changes in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Background: It has been argued that the US biofuel policy is responsible for the land use changes in Malaysia and Indonesia (M&I). In this paper, following a short literature review that highlights the relevant topics and issues, we develop analytical and numerical analyses to evaluate the extent to which production of biofuels in the US alters land use in M&I. The analytical analyses make it clear that market-mediated responses may generate some land use change in M&I due to biofuel production in the US.

Market-mediated responses confound policies to limit deforestation from oil palm expansion in Malaysia and Indonesia.

The global demand for palm oil has grown rapidly over the past several decades. Much of the output expansion has occurred in carbon- and biodiversity-rich forest lands of Malaysia and Indonesia (M&I), contributing to record levels of terrestrial carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. This has led to a variety of voluntary and mandatory regulatory actions, as well as calls for limits on palm oil imports from M&I.

Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emission effects of biodiesel in the United States with induced land use change impacts.

This study conducted the updated simulations to depict a life cycle analysis (LCA) of the biodiesel production from soybeans and other feedstocks in the U.S. It addressed in details the interaction between LCA and induced land use change (ILUC) for biodiesel.

The contribution of glyphosate to agriculture and potential impact of restrictions on use at the global level.

This study assesses the potential economic and environmental impacts that would arise if restrictions on glyphosate use resulted in the world no longer planting genetically modified herbicide tolerant (GM HT) crops. 'First round' impacts are the loss of farm level and aggregate impacts associated with the widespread use of GM HT crops (tolerant to glyphosate). There would be an annual loss of global farm income gains of $6.

The impact of considering land intensification and updated data on biofuels land use change and emissions estimates.

Background: The GTAP model has been used to estimate biofuel policy induced land use changes and consequent GHG emissions for more than a decade. This paper reviews the history of the model and database modifications and improvements that have occurred over that period. In particular, the paper covers in greater detail the move from the 2004 to the 2011 database, and the inclusion of cropland intensification in the modeling structure.