Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020.

In countries with weak surveillance systems, confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are likely to underestimate the pandemic's death toll. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data of cemeteries in Mogadishu, Somalia during 2020 to estimate the date of introduction and other epidemiologic parameters of the early spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in this low-income, crisis-affected setting.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia.

Background: While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well documented in high-income countries, less is known about the health effects in Somalia, where health systems are weak and vital registration is underdeveloped.

Methods: We used remote sensing and geospatial analysis to quantify burial numbers from January 2017 to September 2020 in Mogadishu. We imputed missing grave counts using surface area data.