Large-scale calibration and simulation of COVID-19 epidemiologic scenarios to support healthcare planning.

The COVID-19 pandemic has provided stiff challenges for planning and resourcing in health services in the UK and worldwide. Epidemiological models can provide simulations of how infectious disease might progress in a population given certain parameters. We adapted an agent-based model of COVID-19 to inform planning and decision-making within a healthcare setting, and created a software framework that automates processes for calibrating the model parameters to health data and allows the model to be run at national population scale on National Health Service (NHS) infrastructure.