Causal isotonic calibration for heterogeneous treatment effects.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. In addition, we introduce a novel data-efficient variant of calibration that avoids the need for hold-out calibration sets, which we refer to as cross-calibration. Causal isotonic cross-calibration takes cross-fitted predictors and outputs a single calibrated predictor obtained using all available data.

Active Postlicensure Safety Surveillance for Recombinant Zoster Vaccine Using Electronic Health Record Data.

Recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) (Shingrix; GlaxoSmithKline, Brentford, United Kingdom) is an adjuvanted glycoprotein vaccine that was licensed in 2017 to prevent herpes zoster (shingles) and its complications in older adults. In this prospective, postlicensure Vaccine Safety Datalink study using electronic health records, we sequentially monitored a real-world population of adults aged ≥50 years who received care in multiple US Vaccine Safety Datalink health systems to identify potentially increased risks of 10 prespecified health outcomes, including stroke, anaphylaxis, and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). Among 647,833 RZV doses administered from January 2018 through December 2019, we did not detect a sustained increased risk of any monitored outcome for RZV recipients relative to either historical (2013-2017) recipients of zoster vaccine live, a live attenuated virus vaccine (Zostavax; Merck & Co.

Effect of Mexico's vaccination program on Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among older adults in Mexico City.

Objective: To characterize the impact of Mexico's Co-vid-19 vaccination campaign of older adults.

Materials And Methods: We estimated the absolute change in sympto-matic cases, hospitalizations and deaths for vaccine-eligible adults (aged >60 years) and the relative change compared to vaccine-ineligible groups since the campaign started. Re-sults.

Pragmatic Randomized Study of Targeted Text Message Reminders to Reduce Missed Clinic Visits.

Introduction: Missed clinic appointments ("no-shows") waste health system resources, decrease physician availability, and may worsen patient outcomes. Appointment reminders reduce no-shows, though evidence on the optimal number of reminders is limited and sending multiple reminders for every visit is costly. Risk prediction models can be used to target reminders for visits that are likely to be missed.

Leveraging the entire cohort in drug safety monitoring: part 1 methods for sequential surveillance that use regression adjustment or weighting to control confounding in a multisite, rare event, distributed data setting.

Objective: Study designs involving self-controlled or exposure-matched samples are commonly used to monitor postmarket vaccine and drug safety, and they use a subset of the available larger cohort. This article overviews group sequential methods designed for observational data safety monitoring that use the whole exposed and unexposed cohorts by implementing regression adjustment or weighting to control confounding.

Methods: We summarize what is known about the performance of "whole cohort" methods in multisite health plan data networks such as the Sentinel System of the Food and Drug Administration, where outcomes are rare, individual-level patient data cannot be pooled across sites, site heterogeneity is large, and data are dynamically updated over time.

Racial disparities in prostate cancer survival in a screened population: Reality versus artifact.

Background: Racial disparities in prostate cancer survival (PCS) narrowed during the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) era, suggesting that screening may induce more equitable outcomes. However, the effects of lead time and overdiagnosis can inflate survival even without real screening benefit.

Methods: A simulation model of PCS in the early PSA era (1991-2000) was created.

Estimation of the Cost-Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Screening Using Mammography in Mexico Through a Simulation.

Background: Currently, breast cancer is the most prevalent tumor among Mexican women. Screening methods such as mammography could potentially reduce the health and economic burden of breast cancer; however, its risk-benefit balance is still unclear.

Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of different breast cancer screening programs using mammography in Mexico and to contribute to the decision-making process on this preventive measure.