Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.

Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.

Incomplete host immunity favors the evolution of virulence in an emergent pathogen.

Immune memory evolved to protect hosts from reinfection, but incomplete responses that allow future reinfection may inadvertently select for more-harmful pathogens. We present empirical and modeling evidence that incomplete immunity promotes the evolution of higher virulence in a natural host-pathogen system. We performed sequential infections of house finches with strains of various levels of virulence.

Evolution of pathogen virulence across space during an epidemic.

We explore pathogen virulence evolution during the spatial expansion of an infectious disease epidemic in the presence of a novel host movement trade-off, using a simple, spatially explicit mathematical model. This work is motivated by empirical observations of the Mycoplasma gallisepticum invasion into North American house finch (Haemorhous mexicanus) populations; however, our results likely have important applications to other emerging infectious diseases in mobile hosts. We assume that infection reduces host movement and survival and that across pathogen strains the severity of these reductions increases with pathogen infectiousness.

Parallel patterns of increased virulence in a recently emerged wildlife pathogen.

The evolution of higher virulence during disease emergence has been predicted by theoretical models, but empirical studies of short-term virulence evolution following pathogen emergence remain rare. Here we examine patterns of short-term virulence evolution using archived isolates of the bacterium Mycoplasma gallisepticum collected during sequential emergence events in two geographically distinct populations of the host, the North American house finch (Haemorhous [formerly Carpodacus] mexicanus). We present results from two complementary experiments, one that examines the trend in pathogen virulence in eastern North American isolates over the course of the eastern epidemic (1994-2008), and the other a parallel experiment on Pacific coast isolates of the pathogen collected after M.

Evolution of virulence in heterogeneous host communities under multiple trade-offs.

Many pathogens and parasites are transmitted through hosts that differ in species, sex, genotype, or immune status. In addition, virulence (here defined as disease-induced mortality) and transmission can vary during the infectious period within hosts of different state. Most models of virulence evolution assume that transmission and virulence are constant over the infectious period and that the host population is homogenous.

Pathogenicity and immunogenicity of three Mycoplasma gallisepticum isolates in house finches (Carpodacus mexicanus).

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) has become a common cause of conjunctivitis in free-living house finches (Carpodacus mexicanus) since its emergence in the early 1990s. To date, temporal and spatial genotypic variation in MG has been documented, but phenotypic variation in pathogenicity and immunogenicity has not been examined. House finches were inoculated with MG isolates Virginia (VA)1994, California (CA)2006, or North Carolina (NC)2006, which were cultured from free-living house finches with conjunctivitis in 1994, 2006, and 2006, respectively.

Evolution of virulence when transmission occurs before disease.

Most models of virulence evolution assume that transmission and virulence are constant during an infection. In many viral (HIV and influenza), bacterial (TB) and prion (BSE and CWD) systems, disease-induced mortality occurs long after the host becomes infectious. Therefore, we constructed a model with two infected classes that differ in transmission rate and virulence in order to understand how the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) depends on the relative difference in transmission and virulence between classes, on the transition rate between classes and on the recovery rate from the second class.

Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin.

Emerging infectious diseases threaten wildlife populations and human health. Understanding the spatial distributions of these new diseases is important for disease management and policy makers; however, the data are complicated by heterogeneities across host classes, sampling variance, sampling biases, and the space-time epidemic process. Ignoring these issues can lead to false conclusions or obscure important patterns in the data, such as spatial variation in disease prevalence.

Host culling as an adaptive management tool for chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer: a modelling study.

Emerging wildlife diseases pose a significant threat to natural and human systems. Because of real or perceived risks of delayed actions, disease management strategies such as culling are often implemented before thorough scientific knowledge of disease dynamics is available. Adaptive management is a valuable approach in addressing the uncertainty and complexity associated with wildlife disease problems and can be facilitated by using a formal model.

Immune response to sympatric and allopatric parasites in a snail-trematode interaction.

Background: The outcome of parasite exposure depends on the (1) genetic specificity of the interaction, (2) induction of host defenses, and (3) parasite counter defenses. We studied both the genetic specificity for infection and the specificity for the host-defense response in a snail-trematode interaction (Potamopyrgus antipodarum-Microphallus sp.) by conducting a reciprocal cross-infection experiment between two populations of host and parasite.

Host sex and local adaptation by parasites in a snail-trematode interaction.

One of the leading theories for the evolutionary stability of sex in eukaryotes relies on parasite-mediated selection against locally common host genotypes (the Red Queen hypothesis). As such, parasites would be expected to be better at infecting sympatric host populations than allopatric host populations. Here we examined all published and unpublished infection experiments on a snail-trematode system (Potamopyrgus antipodarum and Microphallus sp.