A modeling approach to forecast local demographic trends in metapopulations.

Predicting animal population trajectories into the future has become a central exercise in both applied and fundamental ecology. Because demographic models classically assume population closure, they tend to provide inaccurate predictions when applied locally to interconnected subpopulations that are part of a larger metapopulation. Ideally, one should explicitly model dispersal among subpopulations, but in practice this is prevented by the difficulty of estimating dispersal rates in the wild.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species' life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity.

Can attraction to and competition for high-quality habitats shape breeding propensity?

In many animal species, sexually mature individuals may skip breeding opportunities despite a likely negative impact on fitness. In spatio-temporally heterogeneous environments, habitat selection theory predicts that individuals select habitats where fitness prospects are maximized. Individuals are attracted to high-quality habitat patches where they compete for high-quality breeding sites.

Uncovering ecological state dynamics with hidden Markov models.

Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field studies, ecological state dynamics operating at any level of this hierarchy can often be unobservable or 'hidden'. Ecologists must therefore often contend with incomplete or indirect observations that are somehow related to these underlying processes.

Breeding habitat selection across spatial scales: is grass always greener on the other side?

Habitat selection theory predicts that natural selection should favor mechanisms allowing individuals to choose habitats associated with the highest fitness prospects. However, identifying sources of information on habitat quality that individuals use to choose their breeding habitat has proved to be difficult. It has also proven difficult to identify dispersal costs that prevent individuals from joining the highest-quality sites.

Wolf in sheep's clothing: Model misspecification undermines tests of the neutral theory for life histories.

Understanding the processes behind change in reproductive state along life-history trajectories is a salient research program in evolutionary ecology. Two processes, state dependence and heterogeneity, can drive the dynamics of change among states. Both processes can operate simultaneously, begging the difficult question of how to tease them apart in practice.

The Conundrum of Heterogeneities in Life History Studies.

What causes interindividual variation in fitness? Evidence of heritability of latent individual fitness traits has resparked a debate about the causes of variation in life histories in populations: neutralism versus empirical adaptationism. This debate about the processes underlying observed variation pits neutral stochastic demographic processes against evolutionarily relevant differences among individual fitness traits. Advancing this debate requires careful consideration of differences among inference approaches used by proponents of each hypothesis.

Archiving Primary Data: Solutions for Long-Term Studies.

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern.

The evolutionary significance of latent reproductive rate in a long-lived vertebrate.

Chambert, Rotella & Garrott () used long-term data to assess the evolutionary significance of individual latent reproductive rate in female Weddell seals. Latent reproductive rates capture the differences among individuals in terms of their propensity to breed; they are conceptual and mathematical constructs. Neither recruitment probability nor age of first breeding of daughters was related to the mother's latent reproductive rate, but there was evidence of a weak positive relationship between the latent reproductive rates of mothers and daughters, suggesting some degree of heritability in this trait.

Variation in size and growth of the great scallop Pecten maximus along a latitudinal gradient.

Understanding the relationship between growth and temperature will aid in the evaluation of thermal stress and threats to ectotherms in the context of anticipated climate changes. Most Pecten maximus scallops living at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere have a larger maximum body size than individuals further south, a common pattern among many ectotherms. We investigated differences in daily shell growth among scallop populations along the Northeast Atlantic coast from Spain to Norway.

Assessing hypotheses about nesting site occupancy dynamics.

Hypotheses about habitat selection developed in the evolutionary ecology framework assume that individuals, under some conditions, select breeding habitat based on expected fitness in different habitat. The relationship between habitat quality and fitness may be reflected by breeding success of individuals, which may in turn be used to assess habitat quality. Habitat quality may also be assessed via local density: if high-quality sites are preferentially used, high density may reflect high-quality habitat.

Hierarchical modeling of an invasive spread: the Eurasian Collared-Dove Streptopelia decaocto in the United States.

Invasive species are regularly claimed as the second threat to biodiversity. To apply a relevant response to the potential consequences associated with invasions (e.g.

Now you see him, now you don't: experience, not age, is related to reproduction in kittiwakes.

In long-lived species, individuals can skip reproduction. The proportion of breeders affects population growth rate and viability, there is a need to investigate the factors influencing intermittent breeding. The theory predicts that if lack of experience is an important constraint, breeding probabilities should increase with experience for individuals of the same age, whereas under the so-called restraint hypothesis, breeding probabilities should increase with age regardless of experience.

Drivers of age-specific survival in a long-lived seabird: contributions of observed and hidden sources of heterogeneity.

1. We assessed the relative influence of variability in recruitment age, dynamic reproductive investment (time-specific reproductive states) and frailty (unobserved differences in survival abilities across individuals) on survival in the black-legged kittiwake. Furthermore, we examined whether observed variability in survival trajectories was best explained by immediate reproductive investment, cumulative investment, or both.

Consequences of recruitment decisions and heterogeneity on age-specific breeding success in a long-lived seabird.

An individual's age at first reproduction and investment in successive reproductive attempts are involved in mechanisms that can impede somatic repair, resulting in a decline in reproductive abilities with age (reproductive senescence). We used long-term data from the Black-legged Kittiwake, a long-lived seabird, to address the relationship between recruitment age, age-specific breeding success (BS), and reproductive senescence, while accounting for breeding experience and temporal variation in BS. We first detected late-life improvement in BS across all recruitment groups, which we recognized as "within-generation selection" or the selective disappearance of "frail" phenotypes.

Individual covariation in life-history traits: seeing the trees despite the forest.

We investigated the influence of age on survival and breeding rates in a long-lived species Rissa tridactyla using models with individual random effects permitting variation and covariation in fitness components among individuals. Differences in survival or breeding probabilities among individuals are substantial, and there was positive covariation between survival and breeding probability; birds that were more likely to survive were also more likely to breed, given that they survived. The pattern of age-related variation in these rates detected at the individual level differed from that observed at the population level.

The risk of flawed inference in evolutionary studies when detectability is less than one.

Addressing evolutionary questions in the wild remains a challenge. It is best done by monitoring organisms from birth to death, which is very difficult in part because individuals may or may not be resighted or recaptured. Although the issue of uncertain detection has long been acknowledged in ecology and conservation biology, in evolutionary studies of wild populations it is often assumed that detectability is perfect.

Influence of food availability on demography and local population dynamics in a long-lived seabird.

Few studies have addressed the effects of food availability as a proximate factor affecting local adult survival in long-lived organisms and their consequences at local population dynamics. We used capture-recapture analysis of resightings of 10 birth cohorts of ringed Audouin's gulls, Larus audouinii, to estimate adult survival and dispersal (both emigration and immigration). For the first time, permanent emigration (the transient effect in capture-recapture analysis) was modelled for the whole population and not only for the newly marked birds.