Estimates of resource use in the public-sector health-care system and the effect of strengthening health-care services in Malawi during 2015-19: a modelling study (Thanzi La Onse).

Background: In all health-care systems, decisions need to be made regarding allocation of available resources. Evidence is needed for these decisions, especially in low-income countries. We aimed to estimate how health-care resources provided by the public sector were used in Malawi during 2015-19 and to estimate the effects of strengthening health-care services.

A new approach to Health Benefits Package design: an application of the Thanzi La Onse model in Malawi.

An efficient allocation of limited resources in low-income settings offers the opportunity to improve population-health outcomes given the available health system capacity. Efforts to achieve this are often framed through the lens of "health benefits packages" (HBPs), which seek to establish which services the public healthcare system should include in its provision. Analytic approaches widely used to weigh evidence in support of different interventions and inform the broader HBP deliberative process however have limitations.

Health workforce needs in Malawi: analysis of the Thanzi La Onse integrated epidemiological model of care.

Background: To make the best use of health resources, it is crucial to understand the healthcare needs of a population-including how needs will evolve and respond to changing epidemiological context and patient behaviour-and how this compares to the capabilities to deliver healthcare with the existing workforce. Existing approaches to planning either rely on using observed healthcare demand from a fixed historical period or using models to estimate healthcare needs within a narrow domain (e.g.

Assessing the effect of health system resources on HIV and tuberculosis programmes in Malawi: a modelling study.

Background: Malawi is progressing towards UNAIDS and WHO End TB Strategy targets to eliminate HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. We aimed to assess the prospective effect of achieving these goals on the health and health system of the country and the influence of consumable constraints.

Methods: In this modelling study, we used the Thanzi la Onse (Health for All) model, which is an individual-based multi-disease simulation model that simulates HIV and tuberculosis transmission, alongside other diseases (eg, malaria, non-communicable diseases, and maternal diseases), and gates access to essential medicines according to empirical estimates of availability.

Factors associated with medical consumable availability in level 1 facilities in Malawi: a secondary analysis of a facility census.

Background: Medical consumable stock-outs negatively affect health outcomes not only by impeding or delaying the effective delivery of services but also by discouraging patients from seeking care. Consequently, supply chain strengthening is being adopted as a key component of national health strategies. However, evidence on the factors associated with increased consumable availability is limited.

The changes in health service utilisation in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic and the restriction policies implemented by the Government of Malawi may have disrupted routine health service utilisation. We aimed to find evidence for such disruptions and quantify any changes by service type and level of health care.

Methods: We extracted nationwide routine health service usage data for 2015-2021 from the electronic health information management systems in Malawi.

Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study.

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics.

Proposing the "Value- and Evidence-Based decision making and Practice" (VEDMAP) framework for Priority-Setting and knowledge translation in low and Middle-Income Countries: A novel framework for Decision-Making in Low-and middle income countries like Malawi.

The existence and availability of evidence on its own does not guarantee that the evidence will be demanded and used by decision and policy makers. Decision and policy-makers, especially in low-income settings, often confront ethical dilemmas about determining the best available evidence and its utilization. This dilemma can be in the form of conflict of evidence, scientific and ethical equipoise and competing evidence or interests.

COVID-19 vaccine inequity in African low-income countries.

Equitable access and utilization of the COVID-19 vaccine is the main exit strategy from the pandemic. This paper used proceedings from the Second Extraordinary Think-Tank conference, which was held by the Health Economics and Policy Unit at the Kamuzu University of Health Sciences in collaboration with the Malawi Ministry of Health, complemented by a review of literature. We found disparities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage among low-income countries.

Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model.

Background: Road traffic injuries are a significant cause of death and disability globally. However, in some countries the exact health burden caused by road traffic injuries is unknown. In Malawi, there is no central reporting mechanism for road traffic injuries and so the exact extent of the health burden caused by road traffic injuries is hard to determine.