Mathematical modelling for pandemic preparedness in Canada: Learning from COVID-19.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic underlined the need for pandemic planning but also brought into focus the use of mathematical modelling to support public health decisions. The types of models needed (compartment, agent-based, importation) are described. Best practices regarding biological realism (including the need for multidisciplinary expert advisors to modellers), model complexity, consideration of uncertainty and communications to decision-makers and the public are outlined.

Forest Disturbance and Disease: Exploring the Effects of Tree Harvesting Area on sensu lato Infection Risk, Vancouver Island, Canada, 1998-2014.

Background: The disturbance of colonized trees and soil, such as through forestry activities, has been proposed to disperse soil- and tree-inhabiting fungal pathogens. sensu lato is one such pathogen that was detected on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, beginning in 1999 and caused human and animal illness.

Objectives: Our aim was to determine if s.

Mechanistic movement models to predict geographic range expansions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens: Case studies with Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum in eastern North America.

The geographic range of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is expanding northward from the United States into southern Canada, and studies suggest that the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, will follow suit. These tick species are vectors for many zoonotic pathogens, and their northward range expansion presents a serious threat to public health. Climate change (particularly increasing temperature) has been identified as an important driver permitting northward range expansion of blacklegged ticks, but the impacts of host movement, which is essential to tick dispersal into new climatically suitable regions, have received limited investigation.

Comparing Control Intervention Scenarios for Raccoon Rabies in Southern Ontario between 2015 and 2025.

The largest outbreak of raccoon rabies in Canada was first reported in Hamilton, Ontario, in 2015 following a probable translocation event from the United States. We used a spatially-explicit agent-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of provincial control programs in an urban-centric outbreak if control interventions were used until 2025, 2020, or never used. Calibration tests suggested that a seroprevalence of protective rabies antibodies 2.

Expansion of the Emerging Fungal Pathogen Into America: Linking Phylogenetic Origin, Geographical Spread and Population Under Exposure Risk.

In 2018 the fungal pathogen (AFLP5/VGIII) was isolated for the first time in Chile, representing the only report in a temperate region in South America. We reconstructed the colonization process of in Chile, estimating the phylogenetic origin, the potential spread zone, and the population at risk. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of the strain and modeled the environmental niche of the pathogen projecting its potential spread zone into the new colonized region.

Climate Classification System-Based Determination of Temperate Climate Detection of Cryptococcus gattii sensu lato.

We compared 2 climate classification systems describing georeferenced environmental Cryptococcus gattii sensu lato isolations occurring during 1989-2016. Each system suggests the fungus was isolated in temperate climates before the 1999 outbreak on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. However, the Köppen-Geiger system is more precise and should be used to define climates where pathogens are detected.

Nets versus spraying: A spatial modelling approach reveals indoor residual spraying targets Anopheles mosquito habitats better than mosquito nets in Tanzania.

The global implementation of malaria interventions has averted hundreds of millions of clinical malaria cases in the last decade. This study assesses predicted Anopheles mosquito distributions across the United Republic of Tanzania before large-scale insecticide-treated net (ITN) rollouts and indoor residual spraying (IRS) initiatives to determine whether mosquito net usage by children under the age of five and IRS are targeted to areas where historical evidence indicates mosquitoes thrive. Demographic and Health Surveys data from 2011-2012 and 2015-2016 include detailed measurements of mosquito net and IRS use across Tanzania.

Searching for clues for eighteen years: Deciphering the ecological determinants of Cryptococcus gattii on Vancouver Island, British Columbia.

Cryptococcus gattii emerged on Vancouver Island in 1999 for unknown reasons, causing human and animal fatalities and illness. The apparent emergence of this fungus in another temperate area, this time in the Pacific Northwest, suggests the fungus may have expanded its ecological niche. Yet studies that directly examine the potential roles of climatic and land use changes on C.

Where have all the mosquito nets gone? Spatial modelling reveals mosquito net distributions across Tanzania do not target optimal Anopheles mosquito habitats.

Background: Malaria remains the deadliest vector-borne disease despite long-term, costly control efforts. The United Republic of Tanzania has implemented countrywide anti-malarial interventions over more than a decade, including national insecticide-treated net (ITN) rollouts and subsequent monitoring. While previous analyses have compared spatial variation in malaria endemicity with ITN distributions, no study has yet compared Anopheles habitat suitability to determine proper allocation of ITNs.

Looking forward by looking back: using historical calibration to improve forecasts of human disease vector distributions.

Arthropod disease vectors, most notably mosquitoes, ticks, tsetse flies, and sandflies, are strongly influenced by environmental conditions and responsible for the vast majority of global vector-borne human diseases. The most widely used statistical models to predict future vector distributions model species niches and project the models forward under future climate scenarios. Although these methods address variations in vector distributions through space, their capacity to predict changing distributions through time is far less certain.