Climate Velocity Can Inform Conservation in a Warming World.

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial.

Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change.

Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured.

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref.

Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere.

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species.

Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research.

There is increasing pressure from policymakers for ecologists to generate more detailed 'attribution' analyses aimed at quantitatively estimating relative contributions of different driving forces, including anthropogenic climate change (ACC), to observed biological changes. Here, we argue that this approach is not productive for ecological studies. Global meta-analyses of diverse species, regions and ecosystems have already given us 'very high confidence' [sensu Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)] that ACC has impacted wild species in a general sense.

Climate change and marine life.

A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change.

The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming.

Seaweed communities in retreat from ocean warming.

In recent decades, global climate change [1] has caused profound biological changes across the planet [2-6]. However, there is a great disparity in the strength of evidence among different ecosystems and between hemispheres: changes on land have been well documented through long-term studies, but similar direct evidence for impacts of warming is virtually absent from the oceans [3, 7], where only a few studies on individual species of intertidal invertebrates, plankton, and commercially important fish in the North Atlantic and North Pacific exist. This disparity of evidence is precarious for biological conservation because of the critical role of the marine realm in regulating the Earth's environmental and ecological functions, and the associated socioeconomic well-being of humans [8].

Frontiers of marine science.

On 9-13 October 2010 early career scientists from the UK and Australia across marine research fields were given the opportunity to come together in Perth, Australia to discuss the frontiers of marine research and exchange ideas.

Chapter 2. Vulnerability of marine turtles to climate change.

Marine turtles are generally viewed as vulnerable to climate change because of the role that temperature plays in the sex determination of embryos, their long life history, long age-to-maturity and their highly migratory nature. Extant species of marine turtles probably arose during the mid-late Jurassic period (180-150 Mya) so have survived past shifts in climate, including glacial periods and warm events and therefore have some capacity for adaptation. The present-day rates of increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated temperature changes, are very rapid; the capacity of marine turtles to adapt to this rapid change may be compromised by their relatively long generation times.

Spatial scales of variance in abundance of intertidal species: effects of region, dispersal mode, and trophic level.

Determination of the pattern of variation in population abundance among spatial scales offers much insight into the potential regulating factors. Here we offer a method of quantifying spatial variance on a range of scales derived by sampling of irregularly spaced sites along complex coastlines. We use it to determine whether the nature of spatial variance depends on the trophic level or the mode of dispersal of the species involved and the role of the complexity of the underlying habitat.

MODELING THE RESPONSE OF POPULATIONS OF COMPETING SPECIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE.

Biotic interactions will modulate species' responses to climate change. Many approaches to predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity so far have been based purely on a climate envelope approach and have not considered direct and indirect species interactions. Using a long-term observational data set (>30 years) of competing intertidal barnacle species, we built a hierarchy of age-structured two-taxa population models (Semibalanus balanoides vs.