Objectives: To define the effect of influenza epidemics on mortality and to establish the best criterion for predicting mortality so as to provide a method for advance warning of the severity of an influenza epidemic.
Methods: The study was carried out in La Capital, a department in Santa Fe province, Argentina, during 1992-1999. In order to fulfill the first objective, a retrospective analysis was performed with mortality data for pneumonia and influenza in persons over 65 years of age, using the auto-regressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA).
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