Modeling crowd dynamics through coarse-grained data analysis.

Understanding and predicting the collective behaviour of crowds is essential to improve the efficiency of pedestrian flows in urban areas and minimize the risks of accidents at mass events. We advocate for the development of crowd traffic management systems, whereby observations of crowds can be coupled to fast and reliable models to produce rapid predictions of the crowd movement and eventually help crowd managers choose between tailored optimization strategies. Here, we propose a Bi-directional Macroscopic (BM) model as the core of such a system.

Complex genetic patterns in human arise from a simple range-expansion model over continental landmasses.

Although it is generally accepted that geography is a major factor shaping human genetic differentiation, it is still disputed how much of this differentiation is a result of a simple process of isolation-by-distance, and if there are factors generating distinct clusters of genetic similarity. We address this question using a geographically explicit simulation framework coupled with an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach. Based on six simple summary statistics only, we estimated the most probable demographic parameters that shaped modern human evolution under an isolation by distance scenario, and found these were the following: an initial population in East Africa spread and grew from 4000 individuals to 5.

Kinship structures create persistent channels for language transmission.

Languages are transmitted through channels created by kinship systems. Given sufficient time, these kinship channels can change the genetic and linguistic structure of populations. In traditional societies of eastern Indonesia, finely resolved cophylogenies of languages and genes reveal persistent movements between stable speech communities facilitated by kinship rules.

High Frequency Haplotypes are Expected Events, not Historical Figures.

Cultural transmission of reproductive success states that successful men have more children and pass this raised fecundity to their offspring. Balaresque and colleagues found high frequency haplotypes in a Central Asian Y chromosome dataset, which they attribute to cultural transmission of reproductive success by prominent historical men, including Genghis Khan. Using coalescent simulation, we show that these high frequency haplotypes are consistent with a neutral model, where they commonly appear simply by chance.

Relaxed Observance of Traditional Marriage Rules Allows Social Connectivity without Loss of Genetic Diversity.

Marriage rules, the community prescriptions that dictate who an individual can or cannot marry, are extremely diverse and universally present in traditional societies. A major focus of research in the early decades of modern anthropology, marriage rules impose social and economic forces that help structure societies and forge connections between them. However, in those early anthropological studies, the biological benefits or disadvantages of marriage rules could not be determined.

SMARTPOP: inferring the impact of social dynamics on genetic diversity through high speed simulations.

Background: Social behavior has long been known to influence patterns of genetic diversity, but the effect of social processes on population genetics remains poorly quantified - partly due to limited community-level genetic sampling (which is increasingly being remedied), and partly to a lack of fast simulation software to jointly model genetic evolution and complex social behavior, such as marriage rules.

Results: To fill this gap, we have developed SMARTPOP - a fast, forward-in-time genetic simulator - to facilitate large-scale statistical inference on interactions between social factors, such as mating systems, and population genetic diversity. By simultaneously modeling genetic inheritance and dynamic social processes at the level of the individual, SMARTPOP can simulate a wide range of genetic systems (autosomal, X-linked, Y chromosomal and mitochondrial DNA) under a range of mating systems and demographic models.

Climate change influenced female population sizes through time across the Indonesian archipelago.

Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world's richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia's complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era.

Traffic instabilities in self-organized pedestrian crowds.

In human crowds as well as in many animal societies, local interactions among individuals often give rise to self-organized collective organizations that offer functional benefits to the group. For instance, flows of pedestrians moving in opposite directions spontaneously segregate into lanes of uniform walking directions. This phenomenon is often referred to as a smart collective pattern, as it increases the traffic efficiency with no need of external control.