First-passage times and normal tissue complication probabilities in the limit of large populations.

The time of a stochastic process first passing through a boundary is important to many diverse applications. However, we can rarely compute the analytical distribution of these first-passage times. We develop an approximation to the first and second moments of a general first-passage time problem in the limit of large, but finite, populations using Kramers-Moyal expansion techniques.

Spatio-temporal modelling of Leishmania infantum infection among domestic dogs: a simulation study and sensitivity analysis applied to rural Brazil.

Background: The parasite Leishmania infantum causes zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a potentially fatal vector-borne disease of canids and humans. Zoonotic VL poses a significant risk to public health, with regions of Latin America being particularly afflicted by the disease. Leishmania infantum parasites are transmitted between hosts during blood-feeding by infected female phlebotomine sand flies.

Gaussian process approximations for fast inference from infectious disease data.

We present a flexible framework for deriving and quantifying the accuracy of Gaussian process approximations to non-linear stochastic individual-based models of epidemics. We develop this for the SIR and SEIR models, and we show how it can be used to perform quick maximum likelihood inference for the underlying parameters given population estimates of the number of infecteds or cases at given time points. We also show how the unobserved processes can be inferred at the same time as the underlying parameters.

Correcting for day of the week and public holiday effects: improving a national daily syndromic surveillance service for detecting public health threats.

Background: As service provision and patient behaviour varies by day, healthcare data used for public health surveillance can exhibit large day of the week effects. These regular effects are further complicated by the impact of public holidays. Real-time syndromic surveillance requires the daily analysis of a range of healthcare data sources, including family doctor consultations (called general practitioners, or GPs, in the UK).

Bayesian uncertainty quantification for transmissibility of influenza, norovirus and Ebola using information geometry.

Infectious diseases exert a large and in many contexts growing burden on human health, but violate most of the assumptions of classical epidemiological statistics and hence require a mathematically sophisticated approach. Viral shedding data are collected during human studies-either where volunteers are infected with a disease or where existing cases are recruited-in which the levels of live virus produced over time are measured. These have traditionally been difficult to analyse due to strong, complex correlations between parameters.