Excess mortality attributable to AIDS among people living with HIV in high-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: Identifying strategies to further reduce AIDS-related mortality requires accurate estimates of the extent to which mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV) is due to AIDS-related or non-AIDS-related causes. Existing approaches to estimating AIDS-related mortality have quantified AIDS-related mortality as total mortality among PLHIV in excess of age- and sex-matched mortality in populations without HIV. However, recent evidence suggests that, with high antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, a growing proportion of excess mortality among PLHIV is non-AIDS-related.

Guidance for triangulating data and estimates of HIV prevalence among pregnant women and coverage of PMTCT using the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module.

Background: Most countries use the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module (Spectrum-AIM), antenatal care routine HIV testing, and antiretroviral treatment data to estimate HIV prevalence among pregnant women. Non-representative programme data may lead to inaccurate estimates HIV prevalence and treatment coverage for pregnant women.

Setting: 154 countries and subnational locations across 126 countries.

Guidance for triangulating data and estimates of HIV prevalence among pregnant women and coverage of PMTCT using the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module.

Background: Most countries use the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module (Spectrum-AIM), antenatal care routine HIV testing, and antiretroviral treatment data to estimate HIV prevalence among pregnant women. Non-representative programme data may lead to inaccurate estimates HIV prevalence and treatment coverage for pregnant women.

Setting: 154 locations in 126 countries.

Ignored and undervalued in public health: a systematic review of health state utility values associated with syphilis infection.

Background: Syphilis is a sexually transmitted infection causing significant global morbidity and mortality. To inform policymaking and economic evaluation studies for syphilis, we summarised utility and disability weights for health states associated with syphilis.

Methods: We conducted a systematic review, searching six databases for economic evaluations and primary valuation studies related to syphilis from January 2000 to February 2022.

Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models.

Background: Key populations (KPs), including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and transgender women (TGW) experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition. The UNAIDS Global AIDS 2022 Update reported that one-quarter of all new HIV infections occurred among their non-KP sexual partners. However, this fraction relied on heuristics regarding the ratio of new infections that KPs transmitted to their non-KP partners to the new infections acquired among KPs (herein referred to as "infection ratios").

Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: The distribution of new HIV infections among key populations, including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) are essential information to guide an HIV response, but data are limited in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We analyzed empirically derived and mathematical model-based estimates of HIV incidence among key populations and compared with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates.

Methods: We estimated HIV incidence among FSW and MSM in SSA by combining meta-analyses of empirical key population HIV incidence relative to the total population incidence with key population size estimates (KPSE) and HIV prevalence.

New HIV Infections Among Key Populations and Their Partners in 2010 and 2022, by World Region: A Multisources Estimation.

Background: Previously, The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimated proportions of adult new HIV infections among key populations (KPs) in the last calendar year, globally and in 8 regions. We refined and updated these, for 2010 and 2022, using country-level trend models informed by national data.

Methods: Infections among 15-49 year olds were estimated for sex workers (SWs), male clients of female SW, men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), transgender women (TGW), and non-KP sex partners of these groups.

Gonorrhea prevalence in adults in Brazil: Spectrum-STI trend estimation, 2000-2020.

Background: Gonorrhea is not a notifiable disease in Brazil, and the national health information system does not collect data on reported cases or infection prevalence.

Methods: We compiled published data on gonorrhea prevalence in Brazil from cross-sectional surveys and clinical trials between 2000 and 2020. The study entry criteria included a sample size of 50 or more, and Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection detected in urine, urethral, anal, or cervicovaginal specimens using either Nucleic Acid Amplification Test or culture.

WHO method for estimating congenital syphilis to inform surveillance and service provision, Paraguay.

Problem: In Paraguay, incomplete surveillance data resulted in the burden of congenital syphilis being underestimated, which, in turn, led to missed opportunities for infant diagnosis and treatment.

Approach: The prevalence of congenital syphilis, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), was estimated for Paraguay using the WHO congenital syphilis estimation tool. This tool was also used to monitor progress towards the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of syphilis.

Strategic options for syphilis control in Papua New Guinea- impact and cost-effectiveness projections using the model.

Objectives: Papua New Guinea (PNG) has among the highest rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) globally and is committed to reducing their incidence. The Syphilis Interventions Towards Elimination (SITE) model was used to explore the expected impact and cost of alternative syphilis intervention scale-up scenarios.

Methods: SITE is a dynamical model of syphilis transmission among adults 15-49 years.

The impact of the program for medical male circumcision on HIV in South Africa: analysis using three epidemiological models.

: South Africa began offering medical male circumcision (MMC) in 2010. We evaluated the current and future impact of this program to see if it is effective in preventing new HIV infections. : The Thembisa, Goals and Epidemiological Modeling Software (EMOD) HIV transmission models were calibrated to South Africa's HIV epidemic, fitting to household survey data on HIV prevalence, risk behaviors, and proportions of men circumcised, and to programmatic data on intervention roll-out including program-reported MMCs over 2009-2017.

Prevalence of syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia in women in Fiji, the Federated States of Micronesia, Papua New Guinea and Samoa, 1995-2017: Spectrum-STI model estimates.

Objective: To estimate prevalence levels of and time trends for active syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia in women aged 15-49 years in four countries in the Pacific (Fiji, the Federated States of Micronesia [FSM], Papua New Guinea [PNG] and Samoa) to inform surveillance and control strategies for sexually transmitted infections (STIs).

Methods: The Spectrum-STI model was fitted to data from prevalence surveys and screenings of adult female populations collected during 1995-2017 and adjusted for diagnostic test performance and to account for undersampled high-risk populations. For chlamydia and gonorrhoea, data were further adjusted for age and differences between urban and rural areas.

Chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis: global prevalence and incidence estimates, 2016.

Objective: To generate estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of urogenital infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis in women and men, aged 15-49 years, in 2016.

Methods: For chlamydia, gonorrhoea and trichomoniasis, we systematically searched for studies conducted between 2009 and 2016 reporting prevalence. We also consulted regional experts.

Correction: Global burden of maternal and congenital syphilis and associated adverse birth outcomes-Estimates for 2016 and progress since 2012.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.

Second Order Segmented Polynomials for Syphilis and Gonorrhea Prevalence and Incidence Trends Estimation: Application to Spectrum's Guinea-Bissau and South Africa Data.

This paper presents two approaches to smoothing time trends in prevalence and estimating the underlying incidence of remissible infections. In the first approach, we use second order segmented polynomials to smooth a curve in a bounded domain. In the second, incidence is modeled instead and the prevalence is reconstructed using the recovery rate which is assumed to be known.

Prevalence and incidence estimates for syphilis, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and congenital syphilis in Colombia, 1995-2016.

Objectives: To estimate adult (15-49 years old) prevalence and incidence of active syphilis, gonorrhea, and chlamydia, and incidence of congenital syphilis (CS) and adverse birth outcomes (ABOs) in Colombia, over 1995-2016.

Methods: The Spectrum-STI epidemiological model tool estimated gonorrhea and chlamydia prevalences as moving averages across prevalences observed in representative general population surveys. For adult syphilis, Spectrum-STI applied segmented polynomial regression through prevalence data from antenatal care (ANC) surveys, routine ANC-based screening, and general population surveys.

Adult female syphilis prevalence, congenital syphilis case incidence and adverse birth outcomes, Mongolia 2000-2016: Estimates using the Spectrum STI tool.

Introduction: Mongolia's health ministry prioritizes control of Sexually Transmitted Infections, including syphilis screening and treatment in antenatal care (ANC).

Methods: Adult syphilis prevalence trends were fitted using the Spectrum-STI estimation tool, using data from ANC surveys and routine screening over 1997-2016. Estimates were combined with programmatic data to estimate numbers of treated and untreated pregnant women with syphilis and associated incidence congenital syphilis (CS) and CS-attributable adverse birth outcomes (ABO), which we compared with CS case reports.

Global burden of maternal and congenital syphilis and associated adverse birth outcomes-Estimates for 2016 and progress since 2012.

Background: In 2007 the World Health Organization (WHO) launched the global initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis (congenital syphilis, or CS). To assess progress towards the goal of <50 CS cases per 100,000 live births, we generated regional and global estimates of maternal and congenital syphilis for 2016 and updated the 2012 estimates.

Methods: Maternal syphilis estimates were generated using the Spectrum-STI model, fitted to sentinel surveys and routine testing of pregnant women during antenatal care (ANC) and other representative population data.

Adult gonorrhea, chlamydia and syphilis prevalence, incidence, treatment and syndromic case reporting in South Africa: Estimates using the Spectrum-STI model, 1990-2017.

Objectives: To estimate trends in prevalence and incidence of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia in adult men and women in South Africa.

Methods: The Spectrum-STI tool estimated trends in prevalence and incidence of active syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia, fitting South African prevalence data. Results were used, alongside programmatic surveillance data, to estimate trends in incident gonorrhea cases resistant to first-line treatment, and the reporting gap of symptomatic male gonorrhea and chlamydia cases treated but not reported as cases of urethritis syndrome.

Syphilis prevalence trends in adult women in 132 countries - estimations using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections model.

We estimated national-level trends in the prevalence of probable active syphilis in adult women using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) model to inform program planning, target-setting, and progress evaluation in STI control. The model fitted smoothed-splines polynomial regressions to data from antenatal clinic surveys and screening and representative household surveys, adjusted for diagnostic test performance and weighted by national coverage. Eligible countries had ≥1 data point from 2010 or later and ≥3 from 2000 or later from adult populations considered representative of the general female population (pregnant women or community-based studies).

The emerging health impact of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zimbabwe: An evaluation using three epidemiological models.

Background: Zimbabwe adopted voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as a priority HIV prevention strategy in 2007 and began implementation in 2009. We evaluated the costs and impact of this VMMC program to date and in future.

Methods: Three mathematical models describing Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic and program evolution were calibrated to household survey data on prevalence and risk behaviors, with circumcision coverage calibrated to program-reported VMMCs.

Trends in adult chlamydia and gonorrhoea prevalence, incidence and urethral discharge case reporting in Mongolia from 1995 to 2016 - estimates using the Spectrum-STI model.

Objective: To estimate Mongolia's prevalence and incidence trends of gonorrhoea and chlamydia in women and men 15-49 years old to inform control of STIs and HIV, a national health sector priority.

Methods: We applied the Spectrum-STI estimation model, fitting data from two national population surveys (2001 and 2008) and from routine gonorrhoea screening of pregnant women in antenatal care (1997 to 2016) adjusted for diagnostic test performance, male/female differences and missing high-risk populations. Prevalence and incidence estimates were then used to assess completeness of national case reporting.