Simulation of winter wheat response to variable sowing dates and densities in a high-yielding environment.

Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change.

Aphid Resistance: An Overlooked Ecological Dimension of Nonstructural Carbohydrates in Cereals.

Nonstructural carbohydrates in cereals have been widely investigated from physiological, genetic, and breeding perspectives. Nonstructural carbohydrates may contribute to grain filling, but correlations with yield are inconsistent and sometimes negative. Here we ask if there are hidden functions of nonstructural carbohydrates, advance an ecological dimension to this question, and speculate that high concentration of nonstructural carbohydrates may challenge the osmotic homeostasis of aphids, thus providing a working hypothesis that connects nonstructural carbohydrates with aphid resistance in cereals.

Multimodel ensembles improve predictions of crop-environment-management interactions.

A recent innovation in assessment of climate change impact on agricultural production has been to use crop multimodel ensembles (MMEs). These studies usually find large variability between individual models but that the ensemble mean (e-mean) and median (e-median) often seem to predict quite well. However, few studies have specifically been concerned with the predictive quality of those ensemble predictors.

Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.

Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C.

Balancing crop yield and water productivity tradeoffs in herbaceous and woody crops.

The links between water and crop yield are well known. In agricultural systems, maximum yield and maximum water productivity (WP; yield divided by water use) are not always compatible goals. In water-limited situations, optimal solutions must be reached by finding a compromise between the levels of crop production and WP.

Reflections on food security under water scarcity.

Forecasts on population growth and economic development indicate that there will be substantial increases in food demand for the forthcoming decades. We focus here on the water requirements of food production, on the issue of whether there would be enough water to produce sufficient food in the future, and we offer options to face this challenge based on recent trends observed in some agricultural systems. Given the competition for water faced by the agricultural sector, and the uncertainties associated with climate change, improving the efficiency of water use in both rain-fed and irrigated systems is the main avenue to face the challenge.

A model of daily mean canopy conductance for calculating transpiration of olive canopies.

We tested the hypothesis that the transpiration (λE) of high-coupled canopies, such as olive groves, may be calculated on a daily basis with sufficient precision by the Penman-Monteith 'big leaf' equation, by a model of bulk daily canopy conductance (g) capable of scaling for canopy dimension. Given the limited data required, such a model could replace the standard approach (ET × K) for calculating olive water requirements, enhancing the precision of estimates. We developed a specific model of daily g for unstressed olive canopies that was calibrated by transpiration measurements obtained by water balance from a 2-year experiment in a mature orchard with λE ranging from 0.

Deficit irrigation for reducing agricultural water use.

At present and more so in the future, irrigated agriculture will take place under water scarcity. Insufficient water supply for irrigation will be the norm rather than the exception, and irrigation management will shift from emphasizing production per unit area towards maximizing the production per unit of water consumed, the water productivity. To cope with scarce supplies, deficit irrigation, defined as the application of water below full crop-water requirements (evapotranspiration), is an important tool to achieve the goal of reducing irrigation water use.