Probabilistic design of a near-surface CO2 leak detection system.

A methodology is developed for predicting the performance of near-surface CO(2) leak detection systems at geologic sequestration sites. The methodology integrates site characterization and modeling to predict the statistical properties of natural CO(2) fluxes, the transport of CO(2) from potential subsurface leakage points, and the detection of CO(2) surface fluxes by the monitoring network. The probability of leak detection is computed as the probability that the leakage signal is sufficient to increase the total flux beyond a statistically determined threshold.