Risk of Active Tuberculosis in the Five Years Following Infection . . . 15%?

Background: It is often stated that the lifetime risk of developing active TB after an index infection is 5% to 10%, one-half of which accrues in the 2 to 5 years following infection. The goal of this study was to determine whether such estimates are consistent with local programmatic data.

Methods: This study included close contacts of individuals with active pulmonary TB notified in the Australian state of Victoria from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2013, who we deemed to have been infected as a result of their exposure.