The impact of the program for medical male circumcision on HIV in South Africa: analysis using three epidemiological models.

: South Africa began offering medical male circumcision (MMC) in 2010. We evaluated the current and future impact of this program to see if it is effective in preventing new HIV infections. : The Thembisa, Goals and Epidemiological Modeling Software (EMOD) HIV transmission models were calibrated to South Africa's HIV epidemic, fitting to household survey data on HIV prevalence, risk behaviors, and proportions of men circumcised, and to programmatic data on intervention roll-out including program-reported MMCs over 2009-2017.